The World Series belonged to the AL West in 2022 and 2023, before the Dodgers stole the show in 2024.
For years, the Houston Astros walked an easy path to the AL West title. For quite some time, it looked like nobody could stand up to those dominant teams in Southern Texas. Even the old name of their home ballpark— Minute Maid Park— brings back endless memories of crushed breaking balls over the Crawford Boxes.
In 2026, the Astros dynasty is clearly in the rearview mirror. The Seattle Mariners upended Houston’s four-year streak of winning the division. If you toss out the shortened 2020 season, that streak would’ve jumped to seven straight titles.
Entering 2026, Seattle is the consensus favorite to control the AL West once more. The Mariners backed up their 2025 title with a deep run into October, as they knocked down a gritty Detroit Tigers squad in five games. Seattle fell eight outs short of a trip to the World Series, as a George Springer home run effectively sent the M’s home after a hard-fought seven-game series.
Behind the Dodgers in the NL West, the Mariners are the most heavily projected division favorite. However, anything can happen with the Texas teams. By July, it’s very likely that one of the Astros or Rangers will make this race a tight one— at least for a week or so.
Projected Division Winner: Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have a case to be the MLB’s fastest-rising team. Just two years ago, this team was frequently joked to be the all pitching, no offense roster. Just a year later, the same team watched a 60-home run season come from their starting backstop. They also watched Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, Randy Arozarena, and a resurgent Jorge Polanco.
There’s a kick of offense for you. While Suarez and Polanco found new homes this offseason, the new offensive identity figures to stick. With a sneaky addition of Brendan Donovan, here’s their projected top five hitters for 2026:
- Cal Raleigh – Projected 6.4 WAR, with a 130 wRC+
- Julio Rodriguez – Projected 5.9 WAR, with a 129 wRC+
- Brendan Donovan – Projected 3.0 WAR, with a 119 wRC+
- Josh Naylor – Projected 2.9 WAR, with a 122 wRC+
- Randy Arozarena – Projected 2.1 WAR, with a 113 wRC+
It’s only fitting that the top five hitters stand out, because another five-man group shines on this roster. Now at full health, Seattle’s rotation easily figures to be among the MLB’s best in 2026:
- Bryan Woo – Projected 3.46 ERA, landed in the 100th percentile in Fastball Run Value last year
- Logan Gilbert – Projected 3.41 ERA, velocity was up 0.7 MPH in his first Spring Training start
- George Kirby – Projected 3.52 ERA, elite 3.0% Walk Rate in his last full season in 2024
- Bryce Miller – Projected 4.11 ERA, 2.94 ERA in his last full season in 2024
- Luis Castillo – Projected 3.82 ERA, and posted a 3.54 ERA the year prior
There’s no shortage of talent in the bullpen either. Andres Muñoz is among the game’s elite closers, and with Matt Brash healthy, they’ll add a solid setup man. Seattle also traded top catching prospect Harry Ford for Jose A. Ferrer, adding a strong left-handed arm out of the bullpen.
This is one of the most well-crafted rosters in the sport. There’s upside to be found just about everywhere, and that’s why this team could easily amass 95 wins if everything clicks. Barring a major injury bug, they should cruise to their second division title in a row.
1. Cal Raleigh – SEA
2024:
153 G
.220/.312/.436
34 HR
117 wRC+
.346 xwOBA14 FRV
5.4 fWAR (t-1st)Raleigh is the safest mixture of great defense and offense. He has proven to be an elite defender with plus power offensively playing in a pitcher friendly park. pic.twitter.com/UKmiqSG8Gl
— Data Driven Stats (@mlb_advanced3) February 9, 2025
Projected Second Place Team: Houston Astros
As mentioned prior, the Astros fell back to earth in 2024, with the departure of Kyle Tucker. In 2026, this roster looks quite different, especially with the most recent departure of longtime Astro Framber Valdez. The production will have to come from new faces— or it may not at all.
A key piece that will be returning is the big left-handed slugger Yordan Alvarez. Injuries limited Alvarez to just 48 games in 2025, which held his home run total to just six. Astros fans grew accustomed to 30+ home runs per season, as Alvarez met that mark in each of the past four seasons.
Another key piece will be international free-agent pickup Tatsuya Imai from the NBP. Imai is as much of a wildcard as they come. However, early reviews from Houston’s camp have been extremely positive.
Outfielder Taylor Trammell faced Imai in live batting practice, and shared a hitter’s perspective of his splitter:
“Be honest with you, I played this game for 24 years now and 11 professionally and I’ve never seen a pitch like that before in my life.”
The feasibility of scouting a player who pitches overseas only extends so far. It has to be relieving to hear such high praise, after taking a $54 million gamble.
Additionally, the Astros will get a full season of Carlos Correa in 2026, which creates a welcomed logjam of infielders. As it stands, the Astros boast incredible infield depth. Take a look at the pieces:
- 3B/SS Carlos Correa – Career .275 hitter, with a .439 Expected SLG in 2025
- SS Jeremy Peña – Landed in the top-20% of Batting, Fielding, and Baserunning Run Value
- 2B/LF Jose Altuve – 26 home runs with just a 16.7% strikeout rate
- 1B Christian Walker – 27 home runs in 2025, with a top-20% Barrel Rate
- 3B Isaac Paredes – .810 OPS in 2025, 20 home runs in 102 games
- 2B/SS Brice Matthews – Astros No. 1 Prospect, 55-grade power tool (per MiLB.com)
That core, paired with a healthy Yordan Alvarez is enough offense to propel this team to a winning record. While there will be questions about the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Tatsuya Imai, this squad should emerge as Seattle’s primary challenger early on.
In 2025, only one hitter met each of the following thresholds (Min. 150 PA)
Avg EV>92.0 MPH
Barrel%>12.0%
Hard Hit%>50%
Z-Contact%>88%
K%<17.0%
BB%>12.0%Yordan Alvarez is a must-draft at his early 40.8 NFBC ADP#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/sTzLtHcPuP
— Owen Hurd (@Owen_FBB) January 25, 2026
Projected Third Place Team: Texas Rangers
Texas won 81 games in 2025, behind an impressive display of starting pitching. They lost a back-end starter in Tyler Mahle, but gained MacKenzie Gore in a shocking trade with the Washington Nationals. The Rangers parted ways with five prospects— none of whom placed in MiLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects list— to secure Gore.
Offensively, the unit boasts a solid duo up front of Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager. Both should easily reach the 4.0 WAR mark if healthy. However, past those two, there’s uncertainty just about everywhere else. One source of that uncertainty is age, with Danny Jansen, Brandon Nimmo, and Joc Pederson all into their thirties.
However, this Rangers rotation will be scary once again in 2026. Their starting five has a chance to be even better than they were in 2025, when they led all starting rotations with a 3.41 ERA:
- SP1: Jacob deGrom
- SP2: Nathan Eovaldi
- SP3: MacKenzie Gore
- SP4: Jack Leiter
- SP5: Jacob Latz/Kumar Rocker
Jacob deGrom returned for good, pitching 172.2 innings after just making nine starts across the past two years. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi delivered a stellar 1.72 ERA over 130 innings of work. Young Jack Leiter stepped forward as well, compiling a respectable 3.89 ERA over 29 starts.
Add on 27-year-old riser MacKenzie Gore, and it’s pure dominance on paper. If you love pitching, you’ll have a ton of fun watching this Rangers squad in 2026.
Potential 2026 Rangers rotation:
SP1: Jacob deGrom
SP2: Nathan Eovaldi
SP3: Jack Leiter
SP4: Kumar Rocker
SP5: Jacob LatzYou’d want another established arm in here to fill in for injuries or underperformers. Winston Santos & David Davalillo are interesting too.
Pen below 👇 pic.twitter.com/lizdPIHmh5
— LouisAnalysis (@LouisAnalysis) December 25, 2025
Projected Fourth Place Team: Athletics
The A’s are brewing something in Sacramento, as they continue to extend their young core. Young infielders Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom joined Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler on the list of extensions this offseason. Prior to their eventual move to Las Vegas, the A’s appear to be loading up offensively.
However, none of those four players are the centerpiece of this offensive operation. Called up in late April, Nick Kurtz put the league on notice in his rookie campaign. He smashed 36 home runs in just 116 games, four of which came in a single contest against the Houston Astros. His underlying data suggests his elite-level production isn’t going anywhere:
- .537 Expected SLG
- 18.4% Barrel Rate
- 51.1% Hard-Hit Rate
- 92.7 MPH Average Exit Velocity
- 77.2 MPH Average Bat Speed
Kurtz brought home the AL Rookie of the Year award, and won’t be slowing down anytime soon. He’s a legitimate force, and should be an elite first baseman for years to come.
The Athletics suffer from a major lack of pitching, and paired with their hitter-friendly home ballpark, project to give up a ton of offense. Both the starting rotation and bullpen are clearly holding this team back. Signing, drafting, and developing pitchers has to be an organization-wide focus moving forward.
Very Early 2024 MLB Draft Re-Draft
Konnor Griffin –Guardians
Nick Kurtz –Reds
JJ Wetherholt –Rockies
Travis Bazzana –Athletics
Hagen Smith –White Sox
Christian Moore –Royals
Chase Burns –Cardinals
Charlie Condon –Pirates
Jac Caglianone –Angels
Cam Smith –Nationals pic.twitter.com/x7LeAZbhdW— Dean Ciriaco (@Deanciriaco) February 24, 2026
Projected Fifth Place Team: Los Angeles Angels
Barring a change in ownership, the Angels may grow accustomed to finishing in this spot on a yearly basis. There’s little going right for Los Angeles in the present, and unfortunately, not much help is on the way via the farm system.
One of the few things that the Angels have going for them is shortstop Zach Neto. The 25-year-old improved from an uber-aggressive swinger to a should’ve-been All Star in 2025. He made big strides, finally making teams think: ‘why don’t we just pitch around this guy’?
Neto has even more room to grow in 2026, after his numbers took a dip in the second half. He’s quickly growing into one of the game’s young stars, and it’ll be interesting to see how Los Angeles handles his contract situation in the future.
Outside of Neto, the Angels are still rolling out 34-year-olds Jorge Soler and of course Mike Trout. Both still are capable of providing some pop, but neither is cut out to produce as 3 and 4-hole hitters anymore.
As for the rotation, Yusei Kikuchi leads the charge, followed by the volatile flamethrower Jose Soriano. The Angels did net Grayson Rodriguez in a one-for-one deal with the Orioles earlier this offseason as well. There’s some promise in Rodriguez, but a lot of questions for him to answer as well.
Zach Neto has put up back-to-back 3 fWAR seasons & posted career-high marks in 2025:
Barrel% (14.0%)
Avg EV (91.0 MPH)
Hard-Hit% (46.6%)He’s added bat speed over the last 2 seasons, moved up in the box, cut his GB% by 9%, & was better against SIs w/ a .330 xBA & .516 xSLG. pic.twitter.com/11RcR6BEyU
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) February 17, 2026
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