From an individual lens, 2025 felt like the year of Cal Raleigh. While Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani repeated as MVPs, Raleigh arguably made more noise than either of them.
He clocked 60 home runs, a major spike from his total of 34 the year prior. Throw in his five long balls from the postseason, and he undoubtedly stands alone with the single best offensive season by a catcher in MLB history.
His breakout earned him an extension early in 2025, totaling $105 million over six years. Had he waited five months to negotiate, he’d probably be looking at upwards of $150 million over that time span.
Regardless, Raleigh is foreseeably a Mariner for the long run, and expectations naturally are running high. Most projection models—which are widely viewed to be pessimistic—are suggesting that 40+ home runs are in order.
However, early indications are not pointing in that direction. It’s not a stretch to say that nothing is going Raleigh’s way in the World Baseball Classic so far. While it’s clear that another 60-home-run season is unrealistic, there is a possibility that Raleigh returns to where he was prior to his breakout.
Statistically, it’s been a grind for Raleigh so far in the World Baseball Classic. In 14 plate appearances, the backstop is 0-for-9 with five strikeouts, but also four walks and a hit-by-pitch. To his credit, the walks have counted for the US. On all four walks, Raleigh came around to score.
However, the lack of even a single hit is alarming, to say the least. Only he and Byron Buxton—who has seen minimal playing time—have failed to record a hit for the US.
The inefficiency has forced the hand of manager Mark DeRosa in the wrong way. Instead of driving in his former AL MVP competitor, Aaron Judge, Raleigh has spent three games on the bench. The Dodgers’ Will Smith received the nod from DeRosa against Great Britain, Italy, and the Dominican Republic.
Raleigh hasn’t just split time—he’s watched both of his country’s biggest games from the dugout. The stats tell a small story, but the playing time only validates the statistical concerns.
Even in pool play of the WBC, the difference in passion when performing for a country rather than a city has been apparent. Struggling statistically on this stage is already a monster of a mental challenge.
Yet Cal Raleigh’s lack of performance isn’t the reason he’s currently in the spotlight. Instead, a simply inexplicable negative interaction with his Mariners teammate Randy Arozarena is radiating through the baseball world. A decisive majority of disapproving opinions are flooding through the media.
The severity of the exchange came from an interview with Arozarena following the game. Arozarena expressed words of extreme disapproval, reportedly using four different languages and dialects. Through all translations, Arozarena took strong offense to the action and didn’t respect it whatsoever.
The day afterward, Raleigh attempted to de-escalate the situation. “There’s no beef. I love Randy,” Raleigh stated. “When we get back to Seattle, he’s my brother. He’s family.”
While he did his best to escape the heat of the situation, the topic persisted. Mexico outfielder Alek Thomas posted a picture of the incident with the caption “Take Things Personally” to his Instagram story. Two days later, Venezuela’s catcher Salvador Perez and the Dominican Republic’s leadoff hitter Fernando Tatis Jr. conspicuously exchanged a hug prior to the first pitch between the Latin American rivals.
Several notable figures have chimed in since, and there’s no true malice toward Cal Raleigh at this point in time. While many disagree with his point of view, he simply describes his actions as a means of competition.
Regardless, constant noise and media questioning is the last thing a struggling hitter needs. With the US headed deep into the WBC championship rounds, perhaps a trophy could bring Raleigh back to his former self.
Back to the baseball side, the struggles from Cal Raleigh are concerning, but not wildly unordinary. It’s evident that the strikeout doesn’t slow him down, as he struck out a whopping 28% of the time through his MVP-caliber campaign.
However, his exit velocities haven’t exactly jumped off the page so far. If he’s swinging and missing often, there’s a parallel expectation that the ball will come off his bat hard when he does connect.
Here’s what he’s been able to muster so far:
74.2 mph popout
87.9 mph flyout
103.3 mph flyout
While he got a hold of one ball, it’s clearly on the discouraging side as a whole. Raleigh is banked on for slugging, and in this lineup, those numbers unfortunately won’t cut it.
You don’t want to weigh such a small statistical sample heavily into a 162-game season. However, with how eventful these past two weeks have been, there’s reasonable concern that this grind may carry into the 2026 regular season.
The good news? Raleigh is only 29 years of age and very much still in his physical prime. Just like he broke out in 2025, he has the capacity to bounce back from a slump as well.
With that said, I think we’re looking at a .240 batting average and 30-35 home runs in 2026. It’s naturally common to see regressions after breakouts, and with how Raleigh’s month of March is faring, he fits the bill of a typical return to past form.
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