The Chicago Cubs were more than a baseball team in 2026; they were a group of entertainers. They are headed back to the postseason, and nobody can predict how they’ll fare on the big stage.
Chicago’s offense lit up the league all season. The Cubs posted a .746 OPS before the All-Star break and an .801 OPS after it. Their lineup is arguably the deepest in the sport, and only the (improved) back-to-back champion Dodgers could make a case against it. The heavy favorite for National League MVP leads off, followed by two right-handed hitters with OPS marks above .800. Only two players in their regular lineup have an OPS below the league average: their two lockdown defenders up the middle, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner.
Defensively, the Cubs are far and away the best fielding team in baseball. They lead MLB with 72 Outs Above Average, per Statcast, which is 29 more than second-place Arizona.
Have you guessed what they struggle with yet?
Pitching, pitching and pitching. The most feared offense in baseball, which scored a league-leading 844 runs, sits 12 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. While the Brew Crew are enjoying an incredible year, the fact that the Cubs haven’t even threatened them is a scientific question of its own.
Chicago’s pitching staff ranks 17th in ERA. They are allowing the second-most home runs in baseball, more than even the Colorado Rockies. To make matters worse, they rank 26th in strikeouts. At their core, they generate the ninth-fewest whiffs of any staff.
But that’s not even the worst of it.
According to Statcast, Chicago’s pitching should be even worse than it already is. Their expected slugging percentage allowed is .425, compared with an actual mark of .410. The same can be said for their expected batting average allowed, which is .011 higher than their actual mark.
They give up barrels at the third-highest rate as well. Not only do they struggle to miss bats, they also don’t avoid barrels. There are very few bright spots for the unit in general.
So, what gives in October?
The Cubs developed an identity of being uber-talented, but incredibly up-and-down throughout the season. In some games, the talent just wins, and their sweep of the Dodgers in August is one example. Other times, the pitching just crumbles, like when they allowed 34 runs during a six-game homestand in May, all losses.
However, none of that matters now. In October, any team can hit a stride and completely silence questions leftover from the regular season. The Diamondbacks played this role in 2023, as did the Blue Jays in 2025.
The Cubs’ path to the World Series looks identical to 2025, as it stands right now. The Cubs project to play the Padres in the wild-card round, just like they did last year. If they win, they’ll head north to face the Brewers in a rematch in the National League Division Series.
After that, the Cubs would theoretically face the Dodgers, who most assume will be waiting on the other side of the bracket. In the regular season, Chicago won four of the six matchups against Los Angeles. While not utter dominance, the Cubs are one of very few teams that can say they won a season series against the Dodgers.
However, if the Cubs fall short, it’s probably because their pitching imploded early. Facing a scorching-hot San Diego team in the wild-card round, there’s a strong sense of “boom or bust” in the clubhouse at Wrigley.
We’ll get an answer next week. Will the Cubs catch fire or flame out early?
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