Can Pete Crow-Armstrong overtake Shohei Ohtani for the 2026 NL MVP?

Three weeks ago, Shohei Ohtani was a lock at -1000 odds to win a third-straight National League MVP award. Just about set in stone, as the prolific hitter had been enjoying a career season on the mound.

That was until just before the All-Star break, when Ohtani was shut down from pitching due to knee inflammation. Later in July, he experienced a setback while rehabbing, reported as inflammation in his pitching bicep. While he hasn’t been ruled out for the entire season, the Dodgers are historically cautious with the health of their superstar. With that said, Ohtani’s next true start could very well come in October.

It’s unfortunate news for the game’s brightest superstar, as Ohtani even earned his way into Cy Young talks early in the year. However, his temporary absence from the hill is opening the door for a rising superstar in Chicago.

As a prospect, scouts pegged Pete Crow-Armstrong as a defensive specialist with some offensive upside. A smaller kid with a line drive approach, with potential for 20-homer power.

In 2026, not only is ‘PCA’ far and away the best defender in the Major Leagues, but he’s also batting .288 with 26 home runs. The game’s best glove is flat-out raking, and it’s sending waves throughout the baseball world.

Following the Cubs’ sweep of the Dodgers at Wrigley, a new favorite for National League MVP emerged. After mashing two home runs and a double, Pete Crow-Armstrong is officially the new frontrunner.

The offensive comparison

As hitters, both of the lefties are incredibly similar, although Ohtani holds the slight leg-up. They each sit at 26 homers, with a batting average just under .300 and a walk rate above 10%. Neither are immune to the strikeout, as both punch out over 22% of the time.

2026 Stat Comparison:

• Shohei Ohtani 2026: .297 AVG, .399 OBP, .554 SLG, .953 OPS, 6.7 WAR
• Pete Crow-Armstrong 2026: .288 AVG, .386 OBP, .552 SLG, .938 OPS, 7.8 WAR

Ohtani’s experience and established pedigree certainly contribute to his enhanced on-base ability. In terms of power, Ohtani is purely stronger, however, Crow-Armstrong makes up for his frame with an effective modernized power approach. He pulls 33.2% of his batted balls in the air, which ensures that his hard contact does damage.

It’s neck-and-neck between the candidates at the plate, but the other side of the ball is where it gets really interesting. How does elite (albeit limited) pitching value stack up against the gold standard of defense?

The defensive comparison

Pitching to a 1.79 ERA through his first 85.2 innings, Shohei Ohtani seemed untouchable in the MVP race. The only active two-way player, was dominating both sides of the ball, truly performing as advertised.

However, Ohtani’s impact on the mound in 2026 could unfortunately be limited to those 85.2 innings. As it stands, he accumulated 3.0 fWAR on the mound, in addition to 3.7 fWAR at the dish.

On the other side, PCA totals 7.8 WAR between his elite glove and surging bat. According to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Crow-Armstrong’s +24 makes him the most valuable defender in the league by a healthy margin. Young star infielders JJ Wetherholt and Bobby Witt Jr. trail him at +19 and +15, and no other player has more than +12.

PCA is in a league of his own when it comes to impacting baseball games defensively, and it doesn’t end there. As a baserunner, Crow-Armstrong lands as the 13th-most valuable player on the basepaths out of 237 qualifiers.

In 2024, Ohtani made baseball history by creating the 50 HR-50 SB club, a feat that made him the second-most valuable baserunner of the season. However, in 2026, Ohtani has swiped just six bases to date, making him far less of a factor on the basepaths.

So, what’s more valuable?

Putting a measure to Ohtani’s hitting + pitching vs. PCA’s hitting + defense + baserunning is no easy task. However, according to the Wins Above Replacement stat, and Statcast’s Run Value metrics, there is a clear leader statistically.

As of now, Pete Crow-Armstrong is arguably the most valuable player in baseball, statistically speaking. As we saw earlier, PCA leads Ohtani in fWAR, 7.8 to 6.7. Statcast’s value system agrees, after putting all the elements together.

• Ohtani: +29 Batting Run Value, +1 Baserunning Run Value, +21 Pitching Run Value = +51 Total Run Value
• Pete Crow-Armstrong: +35 Batting Run Value, +4 Baserunning Run Value, +24 Fielding Run Value = +63 Total Run Value

The interesting part is that the gap between the two should only increase, as PCA continues to patrol center field. By the end of the regular season, Crow-Armstrong could have a big leg up, statistically.

However, there’s another end of the argument to be made. While Pete Crow-Armstrong’s defense is superb, it’s “one player’s job”. An everyday position player on the roster is naturally expected to both hit and field.

Meanwhile, Ohtani’s role as a pitcher and a hitter is effectively doing the job of two players, to an elite level. As a general manager, having an extra roster spot can be key, especially in the playoffs.

So, one could then argue that the stats of the Dodgers’ “26th man” could even be added onto Ohtani’s value. It’s a bizarre comparison, but it shows. Los Angeles often utilizes a six-man rotation with Ohtani healthy, a system that many teams can’t afford to employ.

However you see it, the race is extremely close and voters will be hard-pressed to decide what they value the most. A five-tool superstar who impacts the game in numerous ways, or a two-way superstar with limited volume?