The final week of the MLB regular season is here, and the season’s biggest questions will finally be answered.
The White Sox became MLB’s best story this season, but now they sit outside of first place in the division. The two Texas teams can’t seem to stay hot for more than a series at a time, so the AL West title remains up for grabs. Meanwhile, the Padres completely flipped the wild card narrative. San Diego was initially chasing the sixth seed but has now won 13 of its last 14 games. That surge has pulled the Cubs and Phillies into the story, as both look to keep pace in the wild card standings.
Those are the three key races, so let’s break down each one.
The race for the AL Central
Once again, it’s Cleveland making a late push for the AL Central that nobody saw coming until it was too late. The Guardians sit just one game ahead of the White Sox and are riding a five-game winning streak.
| Team | Record | GB | Run diff. | Streak | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 81-75 | — | +2 | W5 | 3 @ BOS, 3 @ KC |
| White Sox | 80-76 | 1.0 | +42 | W2 | 3 @ KC, 3 vs. COL |
Key notes:
- Chicago holds the season-series tiebreaker, so Cleveland would need to finish ahead outright to win the division.
- Cleveland flipped the race with a 6-3 win over Chicago on Sept. 16 and is 7-3 over its last 10 games.
- The White Sox have the lighter schedule: six games split between Kansas City (67-89) and Colorado (57-99). Cleveland heads to Fenway Park first, where the Red Sox (84-72) are still playing for wild-card seeding.
- Cleveland’s strength — starters: Gavin Williams leads the American League with 244 K (3.63 ERA), and rookie Parker Messick has a 2.57 ERA over 178 1/3 IP, giving Cleveland a solid 1-2 punch for a playoff series.
- Chicago’s strength — bats: Miguel Vargas has 33 home runs, 20 stolen bases and an .844 OPS. Colson Montgomery has 31 HR and 87 RBI. Munetaka Murakami has slowed down but still owns an .809 OPS with 32 HR.
The duel in the (AL) West
The Texas Rangers are enjoying a better September than the Houston Astros so far and lead the division by a game as a result. However, the final week is shaping up to be a nerve-wracking test of perfection. Neither Houston nor Texas will face a team above .500 the rest of the way, so all the pressure will be on the AL West contenders to take care of business.
| Team | Record | GB | Run diff. | Streak | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 78-78 | — | −34 | L1 | 3 vs. NYM, 3 @ MIN |
| Astros | 77-79 | 1.0 | −59 | L3 | 2 @ SEA, 4 @ ATH |
Key notes:
- Texas took the lead on Sept. 19 (6-2 over Toronto) with a makeshift pitching staff: Jordan Montgomery tossed 3 2/3 emergency innings after Cal Quantrill left with an injury.
- Houston’s last six games are all on the road, but against weak teams: two against the Mariners (73-83) and four against the A’s (61-95) in Sacramento.
- The Astros are also three games back of the final wild card spot, so winning the division is realistically their only way in.
- Houston is coming off a sweep at the hands of the Braves and is now 7-11 in September. The Rangers have been slightly better at 10-8 this month.
The actively evolving NL wild card race
Just a week ago, the Padres and Diamondbacks were battling for the final wild card spot, and everything else was considered all but set. Now, however, the sizzling Padres occupy the fifth seed and are challenging the Cubs for the fourth. Meanwhile, Arizona is on its last legs, hoping for a major slide from Philadelphia.
| Team | Record | WCGB | Run diff. | Streak | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 87-69 | +1.0 | +152 | W2 | 3 vs. MIA, 3 @ BOS |
| Padres | 87-69 | +1.0 | +41 | W5 | 3 @ LAD, 3 vs. ARI |
| Phillies | 86-70 | — | +29 | W1 | 3 vs. MIL, 3 vs. TB |
| D-backs | 82-74 | 4.0 | −1 | W2 | 3 @ COL, 3 @ SD |
Key notes:
- The Phillies have the toughest finish: six home games against the Brewers (98-58) and Rays (95-60).
- The Padres are 13-1 in their last 14 games but now face the Dodgers in Los Angeles and the D-backs at home.
- Arizona is still alive thanks to late heroics: Pavin Smith’s walk-off two-run homer on Sept. 19 and Nolan Arenado’s grand slam on Sunday. The D-backs need a sweep at Petco Park and some help from Philadelphia or San Diego.
- Chicago holds the tiebreaker over all three clubs, so it only needs to keep pace to host a wild card series.
- San Diego, Philadelphia and Chicago could all clinch before the weekend.
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