Jordan Walker’s long-awaited breakout could be arriving in 2026

For three years, Jordan Walker has been consistently projected as a “breakout candidate,” waiting in the wings to become a household name. The Cardinals’ physical, 6-foot-6 right-handed outfielder looked destined to become a regular in the 30-homer club.

Yet he hit just 11 over 162 games combined between 2024 and 2025. Between those same two seasons, Luis Arraez combined for 12. Walker had rejoined Triple-A for much of 2024, as he showed very little results-wise.

If you’re familiar with the Giants’ new second baseman, you know that stat is a punch in the face to Walker’s output. Despite his thunderous bat speed, Walker couldn’t put the ingredients together.

That’s always been the Jordan Walker story… until now. Walker suddenly leads all of Major League Baseball with five homers alongside Drake Baldwin, Shea Langeliers, and Chase DeLauter. He’s now a big fly shy of matching his 2025 total, a season in which he played 111 games.

But it’s not just early flashes— it’s a brand-new version of Jordan Walker. Not the 1.4 update, the 2.0. Through his first 12 games, Jordan Walker is hitting .295 with an OPS up over 1.000. He’s driven in 12 runs and scored 10 runs himself, providing the offensive spark behind the Cardinals’ 7-5 start.

However, the real juice behind Walker’s strong start is simply how hard the ball is coming off of his bat. His average exit velocity of 97.5 mph leads the entire league. In terms of Barrel Rate and Hard-Hit Rate, Walker is nestled in the top 3% of all hitters in both categories.

Even with amazing early results, the advanced metrics suggest that he’s performing above his current stats. His Expected wOBA is actually .015 points higher than his real wOBA at the moment.

Five big swings and a high batting average through four series is one thing. Hitting the ball harder than every player in the sport, is another.

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Where did this come from?

It’s not every season that one of the worst qualified hitters the year prior transforms into an impact bat. However, it’s extremely rare for a weak hitter to proverbially stand “one step away” from success.

For Walker, a launch angle problem was effectively limiting almost all of his power. Despite wielding the third-fastest bat speed of any hitter in 2025, he slugged just .306.

Walker was simply hitting too many balls on the ground for how hard the ball came off his bat. His swing path often arrived late to the pitch on a vertical basis. He struggled to match the rise of his barrel with the pitch, which basically limited him to grounders, low line drives, popups, and weak fly balls.

So, launch angle is exactly what Walker focused his offseason on, working with the performance team at Driveline. The emphasis was on staying loose and unlocking the athleticism that he possesses on top of pure strength.

In a video shared by Driveline on X, Walker was quoted as saying “I’ve never hit 114 [MPH] that high.” That quote itself paints a picture of improvement.

 

In 2026, Walker is posting an average launch angle of 13.2 degrees. That’s 28% higher than last season, now sitting above the MLB average of 12.4 degrees.

All of a sudden, Walker’s Expected SLG has skyrocketed from .363 in 2025 to .712 in 2026. While it’s early and likely to regress, the number revealed the truth about him: He was a power monster who couldn’t lift the ball— but then learned how to.

For a Cardinals team that ranked second-to-last in home runs a season ago, Walker’s emergence is much needed. Early into 2026, the group is tied for sixth in home runs with 13 on the young season. Without his five long balls, the Cards would rank 26th instead.

If the Cardinals want to proceed in their rebuild, they’ll need this version of Walker for the long haul. Fortunately for them, the early data returns are in favor of that outcome.