Just how long could Cristopher Sánchez remain scoreless?

The arc of Cristopher Sánchez in Major League Baseball has always lived under the radar. From finishing second in the NL Cy Young voting in 2025, to his good-not-great Postseason outings that failed to move the needle. The growth from the Phillies’ left-hander has proven considerable, but he’s still waiting for the moment to announce himself as one of the league’s core stars.

That narrative could very well come to an end this May. The seventh-longest scoreless streak of all time, 44.2 innings, actively belongs to Cristopher Sánchez. With another seven-inning masterclass in San Diego this past Wednesday, Sánchez bolded his already-impressive headline.

Today, we’re looking at how much bolder and bigger the headline could possibly get. While projecting scoreless innings isn’t exactly rational, the next two matchups that lie ahead of the Southpaw are very, very favorable. Using an AI-coordinated calculation, the chance that Sánchez ties the all-time scoreless streak roughly sits around 33%.

The precursor: How did he reach 44.2 innings?

It should go without saying, but this is the best version of Cristopher Sánchez that we’ve ever seen. Sporting a 1.47 ERA through two months, the Phillies’ ace is the current frontrunner for NL Cy Young.

The recipe for serving up five consecutive outings is just as simple as it sounds. Sánchez is not walking hitters, and obviously, keeping the ball in the yard, specifically on the ground. Through his last five starts, only three batters have taken a walk.

Sánchez’s changeup has a good case to be the MLB’s best pitch right now. At a +12 Run Value, the cambio ranks atop the league in terms of pure value, per Statcast. Opponents slug a measly .176 against the pitch, and whiff on 49.8% of all swings.

Meanwhile, his trusty two-seam fastball has orchestrated one of the league’s highest ground ball rates at 57.3%. That mark ranks in the top 5% of all pitchers. In terms of strikeouts, he’s been efficient in that aspect as well. Sánchez punches out 29.4% of hitters he faces, which makes him unique as a ground ball-strikeout hybrid pitcher.

Con blanqueada de 13 ponches, Cristopher Sánchez alargó su racha de innings sin carrera a 29.2 y bajó efectividad del año a 1.82. Tiene 80K en 64 IP. Encabeza a todos los pitchers de Liga Nacional en WAR.#Phillies pic.twitter.com/nYzC083rG5

— Enrique Rojas/ESPN (@Enrique_Rojas1) May 16, 2026

I mean, if you’re going to throw nearly five full games’ worth of scoreless innings, you’ll have to be doing something different.

His next matchups— two very favorable opponents

Through his scoreless streak, Sánchez has faced the likes of the Giants, Athletics, Rockies, Pirates, Guardians, and Padres. His complete game shutout in Pittsburgh was considerably impressive, given that the Pirates are the MLB’s 5th-highest scoring offense. However, outside of the Buccos, Sánchez’s power tour hasn’t performed against any particularly high-scoring offenses.

An opponent like the division-rival Braves or Los Angeles Dodgers would seriously jeopardize the streak. Fortunately for Sánchez, the upcoming schedule is very much in his favor.

Projected Next Matchup: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies (Wednesday, June 2)

Funny enough, Cristopher Sánchez will make a second straight start against the Padres when they come to town for a midweek series starting tomorrow. The schedule alignment is particularly humorous, given that the same occurrence nearly took place last season. In 2025, Sánchez faced the Padres twice in early July, with the starts separated by just one outing in San Francisco.

In his career, Sánchez holds a stout 2.05 ERA against San Diego, while allowing just a .220 AVG. Given the Padres’ offensive struggles in 2026 (29th in Runs Scored), rematching the Friars on Sánchez’s home mound is a dream matchup.

Cristopher Sanchez just had one of the best months EVER 🔔

39.0 IP | 0.00 ERA | 3 BB | 45 K’s

Every whiff and called strike from his incredible final start of the month:pic.twitter.com/CSy8GqsDyK

— Baseball Performances (@MLBPerformances) May 27, 2026

Per the earlier-introduced AI-assisted model— a function that weighs the caliber of an offense against a pitcher like Sánchez— the probability of another seven-inning scoreless start sits at a favorable 65%. San Diego had no answers for Sánchez in their first matchup (with the exception of a single deep fly ball), and therefore it’s more likely than not that we see another shutout performance.

Projected Second Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays (Monday, June 8)

While this matchup is tougher, it still leans very heavily in Sánchez’s favor. At this point, the streak would hypothetically have reached 50-52 innings, which would be the 5th longest of all time, and the third longest in the Live Ball Era.

The Blue Jays rank 26th in OPS against left-handed pitching, just a spot above the Padres. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. poses a considerable threat, but there’s little right-handed thump outside of him and the contact-oriented Ernie Clement. Their new 3rd baseman Kazuma Okamoto has gone rather cold, and George Springer is playing much closer to the expectation for a 36-year-old outfielder.

An extra-base hit from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the biggest threat here, and given their familiarity with each other, it’s likely that Vladdy may swing a little bigger against his former World Baseball Classic ace.

Projected Third (and potentially historic) Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers

Now, this matchup is certainly not very favorable for Sánchez. The Brewers are a gritty team that can manufacture runs without thumping the ball to the outfield, which is just the type of team that Sánchez’s pitching style would be exposed to. However, none of that may even matter.

Hypothetically again, if Sánchez were to get through two scoreless gems, he’d already be on the brink of history. Orel Hershiser, the record holder for the longest scoreless streak in MLB history, lost his run at 59 innings. In the world where Sánchez survives two more starts, he’d most likely only need a clean first inning to both tie and break the record.

In the AI model, a scoreless first inning against Milwaukee would only subtract roughly 4% probability. If Sánchez makes it out of Toronto unscathed, he’ll be nearly a lock to become the MLB’s new record holder.

The complete odds, listed

While it’s been referenced several times, here is the complete list of the projected probability of Sánchez reaching the following historic milestones:

Milestone	IP Needed	From Where	Probability	Liklihood
Pass Sal Maglie (T-6th)	45 IP — ⅓ IP needed	1 out vs. SDP	~98%	Almost certain
Pass Carl Hubbell (T-5th)	45⅓ IP — ⅔ IP needed	2 outs vs. SDP	~96%	Almost certain
Pass Zack Greinke (4th LB)	45⅔ IP — 1 IP needed	1 full inning vs. SDP	~94%	Extremely likely
Pass Bob Gibson (3rd LB Era / 5th All-Time)	47 IP — +2⅓ IP	Through 3rd inning vs SDP	~85%	Very likely
Pass Jack Coombs (4th All-Time)	53 IP — +8⅓ IP	Into 2nd inning vs TOR	~58%	Solid chance
Pass Walter Johnson (3rd All-Time)	55⅔ IP — +11 IP	Through 4 IP vs TOR	~46%	Maybe
Pass Don Drysdale (2nd LB)	58 IP — +13⅓ IP	Through 6⅓ IP vs TOR	~38%	Less likely
Tie Orel Hershiser (TIE RECORD)	59 IP — +14⅓ IP	Through 7⅓ IP vs TOR	~33%	Small chance
Break Orel Hershiser (#1 All-Time)	60 IP — +15⅓ IP	1 IP vs MIL	~29%	Smaller chance

Whether Sánchez reaches the finish line or not, the next week or so is sure to be an exciting time. A bid at the all-time scoreless streak record is great for the sport, and should pull in much more than just Phillies, Padres, Blue Jays, and Brewers fans.

Feel free to screenshot this chart, so you can tell your folks how special each milestone is as he reaches them!