Philadelphia came up short again in 2026, and their competitive window looks all but slammed shut.
The Braves outlasted the Phillies in three Wild Card games at Truist Park. Philadelphia’s plan was in place; each of their “big three” starters pitched in the series. However, Atlanta really outmatched Philly from the first pitch and made it clear that the Phils have their work cut out for them to return to success.
Here’s what their current method of attack has yielded over the past five seasons:
- 2026: Lost in Wild Card Series to Braves, 2-1
- 2025: Lost in NLDS to Dodgers, 3-1
- 2024: Lost in NLDS to Mets, 3-1
- 2023: Lost in NLCS to Diamondbacks, 4-3
- 2022: Lost in World Series to Astros, 4-2
For each of those runs, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper held down the top of the order. Since 2023, Trea Turner has been right alongside them. They’ve added pieces like Jhoan Duran and Brandon Marsh to the fray, but the core hasn’t budged. In 2026, they looked like the blueprint: elite starters paired with capable sluggers who could dominate games early.
However, Philly hasn’t actually won a playoff series since 2023. They won the division in 2024 and 2025 but didn’t get past their opening statements in the Division Series. This season felt like the final straw: they barely qualified for the Wild Card round and were promptly eliminated before the first weekend of October.
Some serious roster work could be in order, and it leaves one big question.
Does that work include moving Harper or Schwarber in the offseason?
The details and salary cap effect of a potential trade
The bottom line in any trade scenario involving Harper and Schwarber is money. Both are owed more than $25 million per season and are under contract through at least 2030. While the Phillies’ competitive window seems to be closing, their financial window is still very much open.
However, neither contract is “untradeable” in the current market. When a player like Kyle Tucker is making $60 million a year in Los Angeles, anybody in the $30 million-or-lower range is on the table.
Under the current system (more on that in a moment), a potential trade for Schwarber or Harper could look like this:
A young, talented and controllable starting pitcher plus premier prospect compensation for four years of Schwarber or five years of Harper feels fair.
However, here’s where things get interesting. Negotiations between MLB and the MLB Players Association have stalled, just as most expected. The league and its owners are bent on a cap-and-floor system, and even President Trump voiced his support for a cap when reporters asked him about it.
In the case of a salary cap, the Phillies would need to undergo a major salary dump. This season, their payroll was the fourth-highest in MLB, behind only the Dodgers and the two New York clubs. To get under the proposed $245.3 million cap, Philadelphia would need to shed nearly $80 million by the start of next season.
There would be no better place to start than with Harper or Schwarber. Both are talented but aging and could return a strong haul of young pieces, even with the market adjusting to teams shedding payroll aggressively.
There’s a long way to go in the negotiation, but in the case of a cap, Harper and Schwarber could easily be on the move.
Either way, moving one or even both of them could be the domino that starts the Phillies’ path back to playoff success. Quite honestly, fans have seen enough of the Harper-Schwarber era to understand that the current product on the field isn’t capable of seriously competing with the league’s top teams.
It’s at least worth some consideration, right?
