Good afternoon, and welcome to the final month of the 2026 MLB season. The playoffs are well in view, and rosters expand from 26 players to 28. Whether it’s the tight wild card races or the debut of a top prospect (or both, if you’re Ethan Salas), September is the true thrill of the MLB regular season.
Well over 100 games into the season, most secrets are out. The Brewers are a machine, and their ace is redefining dominant starting pitching. The Braves quietly feature a Cy Young-caliber ace, an elite bullpen, and a heavy-hitting offense. Then their respective division rivals, the talented Cubs and Phillies, are wreck-or-be-wrecked, it seems.
Over the summer, the Red Sox came back from what most presumed to be the dead. Meanwhile, the Rays paced the daunting AL East all season, thanks to creative pitching, baserunning, and a future AL MVP in Junior Caminero. The Yankees are sticking around without Aaron Judge and should power up when he returns.
However, several questions remain unanswered heading into the final month. The answers will shape the 2026 postseason, and even what comes after it.
Can the Yankees overtake the Rays?
Right now, New York would have to win a wild card series in the Bronx just to reach the Rays in the ALDS. Last season, this exact situation took place. The Blue Jays won the AL East, and the Yankees needed three games to get past the Red Sox (whom they would play again in 2026 if the season ended today). In the ALDS, fourth starter Luis Gil went just 2 2/3 innings in Game 1, and then Max Fried allowed seven runs on four days’ rest in Game 2.
The Yankees would love to avoid a rerun of that movie in 2026. One could argue that this year’s team, with a healthy Judge, is more dangerous than last year’s. The only question is whether they’ll be able to get there without Judge for at least another week.
Right now, the Rays hold a commanding 4.5-game lead and an 82% chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. It would take a serious slump from Tampa Bay or a serious hot streak from New York to change things, but the possibility is within reach.
Who will be the third seed in the National League?
The Brewers, Dodgers, and Braves seem like the inevitable division winners in the National League. The Phillies are still in striking distance of Atlanta, but the entirety of the 2026 season has seen the Braves atop the NL East.
The question now arises: Which National League juggernaut will have to host a wild card series? Last season, the Dodgers ended up taking on this role, with the Brewers and Phillies placing first and second in the NL. Clearly, it didn’t affect them much, thanks to their more-than-deep starting rotation. Despite playing two games prior, the Dodgers rolled out Shohei Ohtani and Blake Snell to lead off the NLDS in Philadelphia.
However, not every club can afford to play extra contests without penalty in the next round — if it reaches that round, that is. The Brewers are anchored by Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson in the rotation, but it gets fuzzier after that. For the Braves, it could be even worse. After Chris Sale in Game 1, you’re looking at Tyler Mahle, Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes, or Martín Pérez. Potentially starting an NLDS without Sale on the hill for two games could prove an issue.
As of now, the Brewers lead the way by 3.5 games over the Dodgers, while Atlanta trails LA by merely a half-game. The Braves just swept the Dodgers, but they also have a gauntlet coming up. Atlanta will face the Rays, the Cubs, and the Phillies twice in its next four series.
Who is the final NL wild card?
The question that complements the three-seed race is who that team will play in the wild card series. Right now, the Phillies and Cubs have all but secured the fourth and fifth seeds. Chicago is five games above the current six seed, San Diego, while Philadelphia is six games above.
That leaves the final spot up for grabs between two NL West foes, the Padres and Diamondbacks. Arizona sits a half-game back, currently putting the most pressure on San Diego. Behind them, the Marlins are the closest at three games back, followed by the Cardinals at four. As you may notice, there are sharp drop-offs between the five and six seeds and between the seven and eight seeds.
Of all the races in baseball, this one might be the most climactic. The Padres and Diamondbacks will clash in the final series of the season at Petco Park. This regular-season matchup could act like a wild card series, with the first team to two wins advancing.
So, a short answer to this question might just be: wait until Sept. 25-27.
Which Texas team will make the postseason?
The American League West has looked nothing short of an embarrassment in 2026. The field is whittled down to the 70-69 Houston Astros and the 69-70 Texas Rangers. Unfortunately for fans, the Rangers and Astros will not meet again in 2026, so there will be no high-stakes series for the division.
Aside from the Dodgers’ back-to-back titles, these are the two most recent World Series champions. Although the rosters are severely downgraded, it’s tough to argue with immense postseason success over the past four years. If the Astros get into October, the MVP of the American League gets into October as well. If Texas gets in, its wild card opponent will need to get past Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi at Globe Life Field.
There is a possibility that both teams make the postseason, as the Rangers sit just 1.5 games back of the final wild card spot. As a whole, the AL’s weakness has been thoroughly documented. The sixth seed in the 2025 postseason was the 87-75 Tigers, who finished level with the 87-75 Astros but held the better run differential.
The 2026 sixth seed is on pace to be 83-79. Although that doesn’t exactly seem like a large gap, it certainly is.
How will the Dodgers play in September and October?
No matter what team you root for, all eyes will be on the Dodgers entering the postseason. In 2024, Los Angeles paced the league with 98 wins and cruised through the Yankees in the World Series, with just a five-game NLDS scare on its resume.
In 2025, the Dodgers’ path was very different. Given their talent and offseason additions, their regular season was honestly disappointing. They won five fewer games despite looking better on paper throughout the season. Their bullpen seriously struggled, with closer Tanner Scott generating the biggest negative headlines.
Regardless, Los Angeles got hot when it mattered. The Dodgers went 15-5 to close out the season before tearing through the Reds, Phillies, and Brewers in the postseason. They lost only one game heading into the World Series, while the Blue Jays lost four despite playing one fewer series. Toronto pushed the Dodgers about as far as it could, but LA still came out on top in seven games.
The idea here is that the Dodgers played arguably their best baseball in the fall during the past two seasons. If they are to three-peat, you’d imagine they’d need to heat up again in September. That is especially the case if they end up playing a wild card series, potentially against the Padres or Diamondbacks.
Arizona won five of the past six contests against Los Angeles, which could spell trouble. It’s also worth remembering that the Snakes are the last team to beat Los Angeles in October. That series saw Arizona win both Game 1 and Game 2 at Dodger Stadium, where the two would meet in a theoretical wild card round.
