The 2026 World Baseball Classic has been must-see TV to this point. The tournament design made almost every matchup a must-win game. Most importantly, the Classic is growing the sport on a level we’ve never seen before.
Looking back quickly, it’s incredible how much excitement came out of just four games for each team. The Dominican Republic put the world on notice with 13 home runs, along with priceless celebrations and camaraderie. Japan hosted a pitching clinic in Tokyo, striking out 38.0% of all batters they faced and allowing them just a .160 batting average.
In each of the four pools, there was no lack of competitive drama. Pool A featured a win-or-go-home final game that saw Canada punch their ticket to the quarterfinals. In Pool B, Italy pulled a stunning upset over the US, unexpectedly winning the ultra-competitive group.
Earlier in the week, Pool C came down to a tiebreaker as well, as Korea edged out both Chinese Taipei and Australia for the runner-up bid to Miami. Pool D? Just a battle of the Latin American powerhouses, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, to determine the winner of the pool.
With the group stage madness in the rearview mirror, the calendar now flips to Friday, March 13. The knockout round kicks off with Korea and the Dominican Republic squaring off at 6:30 PM ET in Miami. Here is the full list of quarterfinal matchups to come on Friday and Saturday:
Korea vs. Dominican Republic – Friday, 6:30 PM ET
United States vs. Canada – Friday, 8:00 PM ET
Puerto Rico vs. Italy – Saturday, 3:00 PM ET
Japan vs. Venezuela – Saturday, 6:00 PM ET
With the matchups in place, let’s break down how each first-round bout will shake out.
This matchup features two opponents who find themselves in completely different situations.
In Pool C over in Tokyo, Korea sneaked into the knockout round after going 2-2 in pool play. They competed against Japan but ultimately fell 6-8, before Chinese Taipei shocked them the next morning. Their 7-2 victory over Australia tipped the runs-allowed tiebreaker in their favor, and they headed out to Miami.
On the other hand, the Dominican Republic steamrolled through their first three contests. After heading into the sixth inning tied with Nicaragua 3-3 on opening night, the Dominican squad exploded. From that point, they outscored their opponents 38-7 in a dominant display of power hitting and power pitching.
Korea held their own at the plate in Tokyo, and it’s how they nearly upset Japan. Their .463 slugging percentage ranks sixth in the tournament through pool play. They’ve got huge swings from Bo Gyeong Moon, as well as utilityman Hyeseong Kim from the Dodgers. If they’re going to pull off this upset, they’ll need more big swings from that cast.
For the Dominican Republic, their key to success is simple: Don’t change a thing. They’re the home team, still playing behind a raucous crowd in Miami, with all the momentum behind them. Their victory over Venezuela silenced any doubt in their potential to win it all. The worst-case scenario for this team? Changing up their approach, tensing up, or unraveling in the field. Luckily for Dominican fans, those three scenarios are very unlikely.
The Dominican Republic has captured the world’s attention with its unfathomable display of offensive power. In addition to that, their pitching has stifled opponents to the tune of a 2.38 ERA. As hard as Team Korea searches, they’re very unlikely to find a weakness on this roster.
There’s a strong chance that this contest will be the Dominican Republic’s final preparation before they presumably take on the United States. That potential matchup could be among the most-watched baseball games in history.
The Americans nearly fumbled the competitive Pool B to Mexico and Italy but fortunately passed through thanks to Team Italy.
The United States is undoubtedly in an awkward spot. Per reports, the entire US team seemed to falsely assume that they clinched their knockout round spot before they actually did. This was most prominently attributed to manager Mark DeRosa, who was quoted as saying that their ticket was “already punched” to the quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, Canada fought through a scrappy Pool A schedule, coming out on top of the group. Their win over the then-undefeated Puerto Rico—in the country’s capital of San Juan—was quite the statement. They slipped up against Panama but comfortably paced the group offensively and defensively. Puerto Rico led all teams with a 1.22 ERA, but Canada trailed right behind with a 1.50.
For the United States, the key is putting the past behind them. Now, for squads with momentum like the Dominican Republic and Italy, the message is the exact opposite. However, the US team clearly played under their standard last time out. They still have a case for the strongest roster in the tournament; they simply need to get back to playing like it.
For Canada, causing more chaos is key. After having to root on their fate from the couch, the US team is looking to re-establish the caliber of roster that they are on paper. If you’re Canada, an early lead is a must-have in order to pull an upset over the US. They can’t let the talented US roster get comfortable, especially with elimination on the line.
There’s logic in an upset, given the morale of the Americans. However, Canada doesn’t seem like the team to pull it off. Canada’s pool play opponents were far weaker than the Pool B teams, let alone the United States.
It’s possible that the US struggles through another frustrating performance; however, Canada doesn’t wield the firepower of Italy. Even if the game goes low-scoring, the United States is likely to find a way to win. Remember, they nearly overcame an eight-run deficit on a down day.
This cross-continental matchup features two of the more thrilling stories in the tournament.
Italy arguably made the most noise with their shocking upset over a powerhouse United States roster. They mashed 11 home runs, second only to the Dominican Republic in pool play.
Meanwhile, the Puerto Rico squad was an incredibly fun watch as well. Despite the absences of Francisco Lindor and Kiké Hernández, the Boricuas put together a 3-1 record. Their run was highlighted by an electric walk-off home run from Darell Hernáiz.
Puerto Rico’s case for a victory rests on their strong pitching staff. They led all teams with a stifling 1.22 ERA in pool play. Despite lacking a surplus of MLB talent, the staff featured strong under-the-radar arms such as Yankees prospect Elmer Rodríguez.
On the other side, Team Italy has been one of the most explosive offenses in the tournament. Their upset over the United States came at the hands of three home runs early in the contest. They’ve smashed 12 over the four games so far, which trails only the Dominican Republic.
Italy didn’t shock the world—they are actively shocking the world. In a pool where most expected Mexico and the United States to steamroll the competition, Italy’s 4-0 record shines the brightest.
There’s plenty of offense, as we’ve already seen a number of celebratory espresso shots in their dugout. However, they’ll need to prove that their caliber of pitching is legit going forward.
In a matchup vs. Puerto Rico, who posted a .582 OPS in pool play, the pitching concern can likely wait. Italy’s offense should be capable of doing the heavy lifting, while key starters Aaron Nola and Michael Lorenzen rest.
In the eyes of most, this is the game of the weekend without a doubt.
The defending champions, Japan, took care of business in Pool C with an undefeated record. The best player on the planet, Shohei Ohtani, homered in their first two games. In fact, he nearly collected a cycle with a grand slam in the opener.
Meanwhile, Venezuela is as dangerous of a “runner-up” as they come. They fought with the Dominican Republic all the way to the ninth inning, losing by just two runs. Their lineup is powerful, and they’ll likely get a strong pitcher to start on the bump in Ranger Suárez. Suárez started their first game against the Netherlands and is likely to get the start in the quarterfinal.
The key for Japan is to keep the crowd out of it and limit the long ball. While their offense is strong, they don’t want to go back-and-forth with an always-energized Venezuela squad. Their best bet is to rack up a ton of strikeouts, keeping the ball out of play.
For Venezuela, it may sound redundant, but their key is to get the crowd into it. Arguably the most competitive baseball we’ve seen comes from a high-octane, high-energy style of games. In Miami, Venezuela will have strong support behind them in the stands. If they want to take down the defending champs, they’ll need to get the crowd into it early.
Upset alert, upset alert. While Japan is the consensus pick, there’s a strong argument that Venezuela has the better lineup. Ranger Suarez potentially facing off against Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be cinema, but ultimately, I’m banking on the team with the crowd behind them.
Venezuela has the makeup to strike early, and leave the Japanese squad in scramble mode. It’s important to note, Team Japan was not very familiar with scramble mode. With the energy, the atmosphere, and the offensive firepower, I see Venezuela overthrowing the reigning champs.
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