Leading up to Opening Day, Paul Skenes was the “easy pick” to bring home a second straight Cy Young award in the National League. After back-to-back sub-2 ERA seasons to begin his campaign, it looked like a two-horse race was in order.
Fast-forward to the middle of June, and Skenes isn’t even among the top three betting favorites to win. A handful of National League starters catapulted onto the map and are crafting compelling Cy Young cases. The best part? Each of these challengers has their own unique story.
If there were ever a year to give out more than one Cy Young award, it might just be this year. Let’s meet and evaluate the fascinating cases.
Sánchez is making a sturdy case by comfortably leading the league in innings pitched with 99. However, that’s not even what voters will think of first when they cast their vote at the end of September.
The Phillies’ ace made history earlier this month, when his 50.2-inning scoreless streak came to an end. His dominant run became the longest streak in Phillies history, and the fifth-longest of all time. Philadelphia went 6-1 during his streak, with only a freak loss to the Guardians mixed in.
Sánchez is holding an ERA comfortably below two, and his focus on ground ball pitching will likely power him to lead the way in innings. He’s putting up new career-highs in whiff rate and strikeout rate, adding another dimension to his game.
Cristopher Sánchez changeup last two seasons
2025: .170 BAA. .243 SLG. .207 wOBA. 45.1% whiff rate. 18 run value
2026: .136 BAA. .162 SLG. .168 wOBA. 48.8% whiff rate. 16 run value. pic.twitter.com/QxY8sgf2vi
— Tommy (@TJBennettt37) June 14, 2026
However, his scoreless streak could be the differentiator in a close vote. The dynamics of shutting down opponents for 50.2 innings is simply beyond that of any value stat out there. There’s a team-wide confidence when he’s on the bump, and during the streak, it reached another level.
If fans voted, Misiorowski would probably have the award bagged. The Brewers’ 24-year-old is redefining what it means to have ‘dominant stuff’. Compared to “The Miz”, the craze over Paul Skenes’ fastball two years ago looks almost silly.
Misiorowski sits at 100.1 mph on his four-seam fastball, and topped the offering out at 104.5 mph. That pitch became the hardest pitch ever thrown by a starting pitcher in the velocity tracking era. However, the part that some fans haven’t realized is that his pitches look even harder.
On his 104.5 mph fastball for the strikeout of Kyle Schwarber, the effective velocity sat at an even 107 mph. That’s because Misiorowski gets so far off of the mound, which allows him to release the ball much closer to the plate. On average, his effective velocity clocks at 102.4 mph.
His never-seen-before stuff has netted him 131 strikeouts, which leads the league easily. He’s striking out 39.8% of batters, which is much more like a lockdown closer’s number than a starting pitcher’s. He’s also keeping walks down, and hitters are slugging just .194 against him.
Jacob Misiorowski. 15 STRIKEOUT MADDUX. 😳
9 innings, 0 runs, 15Ks, 1 hit. 0 BBs.
95 pitches. Most Strikeouts EVER in a Maddux! pic.twitter.com/TslplMsGvQ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 13, 2026
Misiorowski owns a shimmering 1.23 ERA, which ranks second among all qualified starters. Additionally, he’s the active leader in pitching WAR with 3.9 on the season. At the moment, Misiorowski is the favorite by a few ticks in that WAR column, but he’ll need to prove he can sustain it.
Another epic Ohtani story just landed: He’s right in the mix in the running for NL Cy Young. The two-way sensation is having the best pitching season of his career, as he continues to do what nobody else is capable of— at the highest level.
His 1.06 ERA leads all qualified pitchers, as he’s allowed just eight earned runs to cross the plate all season. He’s on pace to allow fewer than ten earned runs before July. Mind you, we’ve been playing for three months already.
Ohtani’s wipeout sweeper remains one of the MLB’s best pitches, moving over 15 inches to the glove side. He pairs it with six other pitches to form a crafty and creative mix. Considering that his fastball typically comes in at 98 mph, he’s one of the most uncomfortable at-bats in the Major Leagues.
Shohei Ohtani’s 2Ks in the 1st pic.twitter.com/WpaEqJobtV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 10, 2026
At the worst, Ohtani will almost certainly cruise to another National League MVP award. However, a stellar ERA in the low, low ones could see him double-dipping into awards.
The major roadblock to the Cy Young for Ohtani is how many innings he throws. At the moment, his 67.2 innings pitched ranks 77th among all pitchers, and is over 30 innings fewer than Sánchez. While he’s been stellar when he’s on the mound, he hasn’t been on the mound nearly as much.
However, if the innings numbers level out league-wide, Ohtani has just as much of a chance as anyone else, especially if he remains the MLB ERA leader.
The reigning NL Cy Young didn’t jump out to a hot start after allowing five runs on Opening Day. Since then he’s returned to the 2-ERA range, but there’s quite a mountain to climb in front of him. Skenes hasn’t regressed a bit, yet the results haven’t come through.
Skenes’s 2.49 Expected ERA strongly outpaces his actual ERA of 2.85. He’s walking only 5% of hitters, and striking out 29.4% of them as well. He isn’t allowing hard contact, as opponents are barreling him up just 5.2% of the time.
Paul Skenes’s last 4 starts:
22.0 IP | 2.45 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 34 K | 7 BBSeason Stats:
82.0 IP
99 K
2.85 ERA | 0.93 WHIP | 10.87 K/9Pace: 184.2 IP / 223 K#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/2BvPdnrE8l
— PaceBall (@paceball__) June 14, 2026
The man hasn’t changed, but the results have. While he’s on the outside looking in at the moment, Skenes is more than likely to find his way into the top three in the second half, given his track record. He’s a high-value underdog bet through any sportsbooks that are writing him off in June.
Since coming over to the MLB, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has proved to be arguably the MLB’s most durable pitcher. Aside from an odd triceps injury in 2024, the Dodgers’ right-hander has been an absolute workhorse. He’s already the owner of a career 2.63 ERA across 349.1 regular-season innings.
In 2026, Yamamoto is putting up a 2.52 ERA for Los Angeles with eleven quality starts to his name. Without a Mookie Betts error on Saturday, it’s possible that he could’ve tossed a perfect game. While neither his strikeout numbers nor his contact suppression numbers truly jump out, he’s just a consistent, polished pitcher.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is through five perfect innings against the White Sox.
He’s thrown just 64 pitches. He’s struck out five.
The Dodgers’ ace has retired 37 in a row dating back to his last start.
He’s untouchable right now. pic.twitter.com/LeqVxGtDTW
— Noah Camras (@noahcamras) June 13, 2026
If the leaders slow down, and Yamamoto puts together more outings like what we saw on Saturday, he could vault into the running quickly. Remember, he was the third-place finisher in 2025, with almost the same rate numbers he has today.
The Chase Burns breakout has been severely overshadowed by Jacob Misiorowski, but the electric youngster deserves plenty of praise himself. At just 23 years old, Burns is running a 2.14 ERA atop the Reds’ rotation.
His 90-92 mph slider is becoming one of the most feared offerings in the game, playing well off of his heat. The fastball has some of the best induced vertical break in the MLB, on top of its 98 mph average velocity. While he’s primarily just a two-pitch pitcher, it’s two darn-good pitches coming at you.
Burns is striking out 29.6% of hitters and getting whiffs on 33.7% of swings against him. While his limited arsenal allows for some loud contact, his elite strikeout ability effectively denies opponents from stringing baserunners together.
Goodness gracious, Chase Burns. pic.twitter.com/J36SKiRXFL
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 26, 2026
Again, it’s a large hill to climb, especially for a kid who’s just getting started. His stuff is high-quality and is likely to carry him to a sub-three ERA regardless. Be on the lookout for a “Chase Burns 15-strikeout game” notification sometime this summer. His arm is for real, and he’ll likely be even deeper in the Cy Young conversation next season.
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