The BEST Bets for Thursday – BSBLR Bets 3/26/26

Welcome back to day two of our BSBLR Bets Picks. Yesterday we went 1-1, dropping just -.08u. Today we have four picks for the opening slate. In order to see all four, make sure to sign up on Dabble using code BSBLR. Let’s move on to the actual picks, of which I’ll highlight two here.

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros

Hunter Brown at Home on Opening Day against one of the worst offenses last year vs RHP in baseball. Sounds good to me.

Brown was over 17.5 PO in 71% of his 2025 starts. At Home that number jumps to 79%. Those are elite hit rates for a pitching outs prop and the matchup today makes both of those numbers feel conservative.

The Angels were an absolute disaster vs RHP last year. 26th in wRC+, 30th in batting average, and 28th in OBP. That is a bottom 5 offense in nearly every meaningful category. They should be better this year with the addition of Moncada and Lowe, however I don’t anticipate them being juggernauts by any means.

The pitch count is not a concern. He got to 83 pitches in his last Spring Training outing, his sinker was sitting 98.4 mph, and he told reporters he feels great heading in. He went 6 IP 96 pitches in his first start of 2025. When informed he had the Opening Day nod, Brown said “Joe, thank you. I will not take this for granted.”

In the young 27 year olds first Opening Day start, I expect him to be firing on all cylinders. 6 complete innings should be in his future.

The Bet: Hunter Brown Over 17.5 Pitching Outs .5u (-110)

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles

Moving on over to Baltimore, there is a prop that I LOVE. The books are pricing this line around the fact that O’Neil has homered in 6 straight Opening Day games. I am here to tell you that is one of the most overrated narratives ever.

A player is not more likely to hit a home run on Opening Day than any other day of the season. That streak is a fun storyline, not an edge. If anything, the books are handing us value by inflating this number around a coincidence.

O’Neil was under 1.5 H+R+RBI in 67% of his games last year, and that number ticks up to 69% specifically against right handed pitching. Today he draws Joe Ryan, who held RHH to a .193 BAA and .257 wOBA last year.

Those are elite numbers against his side of the plate and about as tough a matchup as you can draw on Opening Day. Ryan has a 4.5 HA line and 2.5 ER line juiced to the under so I would expect him to have a good outing.

The Bet: Tyler O’Neil Under 1.5 H+R+RBI .5u (-120)

Since then it has moved to -130, where I would still play witch confidence.