Is Paul Skenes actually declining?

“Face of the league” was a good way to describe the Pirates’ right-handed starter Paul Skenes over the last couple years. At the very least on the pitching side, Skenes played poster boy for Major League Baseball after his instant ascent to stardom. For good reason, of course.

Skenes went No.1 overall to the Pirates in the 2023 MLB Draft. He won National League Rookie of the Year in 2024. Then, he won the National League Cy Young award in 2025. That’s about as ‘instant superstar’ as it gets.

Paul Skenes, Frisbee 82mph Sweeper. 🥏

20 inches of horizontal break pic.twitter.com/FC6gD9kGL2

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 14, 2025

Yet after opening 2026 as the clear NL Cy Young favorite, Skenes is 9-11 with a 3.95 ERA. In what can only be described as a down year, Skenes is pitching closer to the average pitcher than a star pitcher. While he’s still a statistically positive pitcher, the standard set by Skenes in years past is sounding alarms for baseball fans.

The widely acknowledged scapegoat for the production slide is Skenes’ fastball velocity. There is truth to it as well— only three years into his career, a decline in the gas department is clearly present. However, the velocity loss doesn’t nearly go hand-in-hand with his results, which makes the whole situation more complex.

Let’s dive into what’s going on.

The fastball: Is it at fault?

The simple answer? No. Paul Skenes’ fastball is not the problem that’s jumped his ERA by two runs. Believe it or not, Skenes’ four-seam fastball is actually the most valuable pitch in his toolbox this year. Per Statcast Run Value, his four-seamer holds a +11 Run Value. The next-best offering in his arsenal is his sweeper, that holds a mark of +3.

So, the fastball velocity development that is being paired to Skenes’ struggles can be put to rest for now. His fastball isn’t “cooked”, “washed”, or “falling off” by the numbers.

It’s just not thrown as hard. So what? Skenes told MLB.com’s Jason Mackey “I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well.” At the surface, it looks like a point-and-laugh sort of comment. Of course he needs velocity to pitch well, he’s Paul Skenes!

However, the tall right-hander is actually spot-on. According to the advanced metrics, Skenes’ fastball is actually posting the best results of his career.

In 2026, Skenes’ four-seam fastball is down 1.3 mph from 2025, and a full 2 mph from his rookie season. However, the heater is posting career-bests in whiff rate, average exit velocity, and batting average against.

It’s tough to say that fastball velocity is the issue when hitters are whiffing more, hitting softer, and putting less hits on the board against it. Luck isn’t a factor either— the expected batting average against Skenes’ four-seamers is .196, even lower than the actual mark of .204.

The fastball on its own is not the issue. Skenes is still filling up the zone, hitting spots, and getting improved spin action on the heater. However, the pure loss of velocity could be impacting his other pitches, which have seen a drop-off in efficiency as of late.

The velocity loss, indirectly impacting success

In Skenes’ first two seasons, his offspeed pitches were his best weapons. A hard “splinker” and a Vulcan-changeup served as the primary change-of-pace behind his gas. He went with offspeed offerings on 33% of his pitches in his rookie season.

The results were awesome. Opponents hit just .166 in 2024 and then .189 in 2025 against the splinker-changeup duo. Whiff rates sat in the mid-30s, and he allowed a SLG below .250 in both years. His ability to limit extra-base damage when he strayed from his fastball was imperative to his success.

However, 2026 has played host for a new development, where opponents are starting to damage his offspeed. He’s allowing a .386 SLG off his offspeed pitches this season, which is a sharp jump from 2025. Opponents are whiffing less, and putting those pitches into play more often. This is nagging Skenes with baserunners, when the offspeed pitch played better as a put-away pitch in previous years.

The idea is that with less velocity, the offspeed pitches differentiate less from the fastball, and leave them more vulnerable. To the eye test, it would seem that batters are recognizing Skenes’ offspeed pitches better, especially throughout the course of the game.

How worried should a Skenes fan be?

It’s disappointing to see such a baseball icon fall out of stardom for a season, but it’s important to know that Skenes is still a very valuable pitcher. He’s made every start and actually ranks ninth among pitchers in wins above replacement, or WAR. His 3.02 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) also ranks in the top ten of all qualified starters.

These metrics indicate that Skenes has been much better than the ERA suggests, in terms of his pure value towards winning. He’s limited blow-up starts, and has allowed the bulk of his runs in the later innings of his starts, with a chunk being surrendered by a following reliever.

A good way to put it is that opponents are being very opportunistic against Skenes. The margin of error allowed by Skenes isn’t large, but opposing teams have been clutch when he does yield opportunity.

The worry-meter shouldn’t reflect a two-run increase in his ERA. More so, it should be centered around health and durability. Skenes has publicly denied a relation between his health and velocity, although it’s a storyline well worth tracking.