Jun 25, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (62) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images
This marks the beginning of our BSBLR Bets Picks. These will go up 4 to 6 times per week covering a range of bet types, with every unit tracked publicly so you can follow the full record in real time. Our goal is to maintain full transparency with every play posted here being logged and accounted for. To see all picks as they drop and get access to the full card, join us on Dabble using code BSBLR. Read to the end to find out our exact pick for NYY vs SFG.
Logan Webb is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and this number feels like a gift for Opening Day. Webb is over this line in 74% of his starts in 2025, and 74% of his Home starts specifically. More importantly, in March/April from 2022-2025, Webb is over this line in 11/11 Home starts.
The pitch count is not a concern here. Webb got up to 86 pitches in his last Spring Training start against Colorado and got knocked around a bit, but that was in Coors. He should have no problem getting to 90+ pitches in a normal environment tomorrow. He also looked sharp in his WBC starts against Canada and Brazil. The stuff is there. He went 90+ pitches in his first start of both 2023 and 2024, going over this line in each.
Now the biggest point. Tomorrow is a Home night game in San Francisco in late March. Early season night games at Oracle are cold and the air is dense, which means the ball does not carry. That is a massive advantage for a sinker/ground ball pitcher like Webb. Since 2022 in Home games where the temperature sits between 50-60 degrees, Webb has a 2.55 ERA and .268 wOBA. He thrives in exactly these conditions.
Overall seems like a great spot for Webb to eat some innings on Opening Day. Love the Opening Day discount we are getting for a guy who normally sits around 18.5.
The Bet: Logan Webb Over 16.5 Pitching Outs, .5u -101
Check out our new Twitter, @BSBLRBets, where our content can go directly to your feed!
To see our SECOND pick and all the rest of the picks for the ENTIRE season, join Dabble using code BSBLR
While it is very early and most teams have only played 5 or 6 games, there is…
Aggressive roster construction league-wide is pushing the concept of a "contract extension" to extremely risky…
It appears that the top prospect in baseball is headed to the major leagues! Konnor…
2026 SEASON: 10-10, +0.96u, 9.4% ROI Today we will highlight two of our five picks…
There are a lot of big-name hitters in Major League Baseball, but none are hitting…
Shea Langeliers has been on an absolute tear to begin 2026. Shortstop is often considered…