Today we have 3 picks for this loaded Wednesday slate. To see our full card, including my FAVORITE pick for today exclusive for Dabble customers, sign up on Dabble using code BSBLR and get a free $10.
Los Ángeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants @8:45 PM CT
Coughing baby vs Hydrogen Bomb here. 2025 was an interesting year for Mahle. He looked elite at times and for the most part prevented allowing hits for Texas.
Not to discredit the season the man had, but I believe batted ball and situation contributed a lot to Mahle’s success. His 2025 xBA sat at .253, while his actual BA was .218. Among the 167 pitchers last year with over 1250 pitches thrown, Mahle had the 2nd greatest difference between BA and xBA at -.035. Essentially saying he was the 2nd luckiest pitcher in baseball.
Mahle also played in one of, if not the, most pitcher friendly ballparks in MLB. Last year Globe Life had the lowest park factor among MLB at 91 (100 is average, reads just like OPS+). We can see the Home field advantage come to life looking at the hit rates.Last year Mahle went over 4.5 HA in only 44% of games. In Home games he went over in just 30%.
The luck has done a 180 on Mahle in 2026. His xBA is at .298 and xERA of 7.08. He has finished over 4.5 HA in 3/4 games and he gets LA tonight.
The Dodgers have the BEST wRC+ vs RHP on the year at 137, and best BA at .289. While only 9/18 RHP starters have 5+ HA vs LA, all of the pitchers that went under are better than Mahle. (Holmes, DeGrom, Cease, McLean, Bibee, Williams, Roupp, etc). When they have faced below average pitchers such as Mikolas, Irvin, or Lorenzen, they have taken advantage. 26 HA between those 3 pitchers.
The Pick: Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 HA 1u (-115)
Hit Parlay of the Day
Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez is on demon time right now. Since 4/13 he has a .402 xBA vs RHP and sits in the 100th percentile in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. He has 12 hits over his last 8 games and is batting 2nd on the Road today, giving him a great shot at 5 PAs.
Kevin McGonigle
McGonigle has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since 4/13, posting a .475 xBA vs RHP in that stretch. His .405 xBA vs RHP fastballs in 2026 is elite, and today he gets Chad Patrick who throws fastballs 84% of the time to LHH. McGonigle is expected to lead off for Detroit, which all but guarantees him 4-5 looks at the plate.
Parlaying them both together to get a hit gives us +115. Playing 1u.
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