Munetaka Murakami: The next Kyle Schwarber?

True three-outcome players are one of the rarest breeds in Major League Baseball. If you’re unfamiliar with the three-outcome player, the key traits are as follows:

• Sells out for home runs

• Whiffs at a massive clip

• Does not chase; takes walks when given

Naturally, this creates three outcomes: a home run, a walk, or a strikeout. While many modern superstars toe this line statistically, there’s a distinct visual difference in their at-bats.

Today, the Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber is the only obvious three-outcome player. Players like Cal Raleigh, James Wood, and Rafael Devers are bidding as candidates, but Schwarber is in a league of his own.

That is, until Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami put on a White Sox jersey this season. Murakami holds the single-season record for home runs by a Japanese-born player in professional baseball. He set this record playing in the Nippon Professional Baseball league during the 2022 season.

The Offseason Skepticism

At first glance, Munetaka Murakami appeared to be a slam-dunk international signing in the 2025 free-agent class. Everyone from team executives to casual fans who watched the 2023 World Baseball Classic knew the kind of pop in his bat.

However, a layer of fog started to creep in on his impending free agency. A sudden fear that he would make historically bad contact in the majors both delayed and diminished his eventual deal.

One key metric, in-zone contact rate, drove the majority of this concern. Murakami’s in-zone contact rate in the NPB was well below MLB standards. Because evaluators predicted an increase in pitching difficulty upon his transition, that deficiency was expected to snowball.

Murakami eventually settled into the smaller market in Chicago, signing a two-year deal worth $34 million. For Murakami’s camp, the deal likely wasn’t the figure they’d first expected. However, for a team like Chicago, a $34-million commitment was no lowball.

From Concerning… to Entertaining

Sure enough, the fancy prediction models were on point. Murakami holds the second-lowest in-zone contact rate at just 68.5%.

However, quite frankly, Murakami just does not care. The South Side’s new slugger is leaning into his polarizing profile, and it’s been an absolute blast to watch.

After another blast Wednesday night, Murakami has now homered in five straight games. He’s mashed 10 on the season, trailing only Yordan Alvarez for the most in baseball. He’s smashed his way to an OPS over 1.000, with only 11 singles and 10 round-trippers.

Take that, evaluators. A player who completely misses nearly a third of the strikes he sees is bidding to lead MLB in home runs. Fifty years ago, that would’ve sounded directly counterintuitive.

However, that’s what plays in today’s game. Even though it’s a fine line to walk on, power production is gold in the modern game, no matter what it costs.

Murakami’s Differentiating Quality: His Eye

In this era, there’s already a slew of hitters who significantly prioritize power over contact. Almost every team has one of these fellows, and they’re often found in the two- or three-hole nowadays.

However, as touched on earlier, almost none of these hitters are dedicated, three-outcome hitters. The common missing piece is the patience and plate discipline to take walks at a high clip.

When it comes to Murakami, his eye isn’t just an advantage that raises his OBP. Instead, it’s the mediator that allows him to whiff at colossal rates.

The logic is as simple as it gets. Murakami chases a minuscule 19% of the time, which forces pitchers to pitch to him in the zone or put him on base.

Now, every hitter gets three strikes per at-bat. When Murakami sees three pitches in the zone, his 68.5% in-zone contact rate isn’t problematic at all. Considering that he’s barreling up 26.2% of the balls he puts in play, his approach is incredibly favorable.

Additionally, the value of his walks is paying off. Murakami’s unreal 21.5% walk rate is second only to Nick Kurtz. His home-run-or-nothing approach works just fine when he’s adding .215 points to his OBP.

Joining the Three-Outcome Club

In recent years, Kyle Schwarber has been the last remaining player from the species. In 2025, Schwarber struck out, walked, or homered in 49.9% of his plate appearances, a far higher clip than anyone else.

Enter Munetaka Murakami. Through his first 104 plate appearances, he’s producing the three true outcomes 60.6% of the time. Yes, the ball is put into the field of play less than 40% of the time.

If you’re a defender, you might as well take your glove off. Considering there are nine defenders on the field—without weighing his spray chart—there’s about a 4.4% chance that Murakami hits the ball to you.

If you enjoy watching Kyle Schwarber’s at-bats, you’ll love Murakami’s just as much.