The American League’s most storied division projects to be ultra-competitive once more in 2026.
The Toronto Blue Jays made a huge splash in 2025, winning the AL pennant just seven months after the media labeled them a “directionless” franchise. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles just about disappeared off the face of the earth. The Yankees and Red Sox traded blows all year long, and matched up in the first round of the playoffs.
Storylines like these have grown common for the American League East division. With consistent talent, competitive ownership, and arguably the two best player development departments in the league, the AL East is always a thrilling ride.
With high competition, comes an element of unpredictability. However, that’s just what we’re attempting to do. After a busy offseason, the AL East projects to shake out very differently in 2026.
Projected Division Champion: Toronto Blue Jays
The logic is simple: the Blue Jays won the AL East and later the AL Pennant in 2025 and then got better in the offseason. A lack of pitching ultimately derailed their World Series hopes, so they simply fixed it in free agency.
Toronto signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract to kick off the 2025 offseason. The statement addition of Cease sent a message that the Blue Jays weren’t just content with their trip to the World Series.
Dylan Cease has been up-and-down across the past few years, but still holds fourth and second-place Cy Young finishes. He’s consistently been near the top of the league in all swing-and-miss categories. Take a look at his 2025 metrics:
- 33.4% Whiff Rate (95th Percentile)
- 29.8% Strikeout Rate (89th Percentile)
- 31.0% Chase Rate (80th Percentile)
On top of Cease, the Blue Jays added starter Cody Ponce from the KBO, and Tyler Rogers to lock down the bullpen. While neither of the two is a top-end pitcher, they aren’t simple depth signings either.
Cody Ponce won the Choi-dong Won award for the KBO in 2025, which is essentially the league’s Cy Young award. His story is fascinating, as he previously posted a 5.86 ERA in his lone MLB season in 2021.
Meanwhile, Tyler Rogers is just as much of an anomaly. He’s currently the MLB’s only true submarine pitcher, and his funky delivery outputs incredible results. In 2025, Rogers posted a stifling 1.98 ERA with virtually no walks or hard contact. Among all qualified pitchers, Rogers ranked:
- First in Barrel Rate
- Fifth in Hard-Hit Rate
- First in Walk Rate
With Rogers, there were virtually no walks or hard contact allowed. For a Blue Jays team that needed bullpen help, signing Rogers was a very creative way to accomplish that.
On top of their additions, the Blue Jays boast a major advantage that stacks well with their recent additions. With the subtraction of Bo Bichette, the Jays will suddenly become one of the best defensive teams in the league. Five players lead the way defensively for the Jays:
- Ernie Clement – +15 Outs Above Average
- Daulton Varsho – +9 Outs Above Average
- Andrés Giménez – +11 Outs Above Average
- Alejandro Kirk – +22 Fielding Run Value
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 2022 Gold Glove Winner
Undoubtedly, the Blue Jays feel like the favorite heading into 2026. They’ve shown the capacity to simply out-slug opposing teams, even against premier pitching.
Projected Runner-Up: Baltimore Orioles
After a scary-good offseason, the Orioles are an easy pick to improve the most from their fifth-place finish in 2025. With key acquisitions, a new elite offensive duo, and depth for days in the rotation, the Orioles’ stock is skyrocketing.
Landing Pete Alonso during the 2025 MLB Winter Meetings was the big fish acquisition for the Orioles. Baltimore traded away two key pieces to the Padres at the trade deadline last season, in Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. Bringing in Pete Alonso is a replenishment of offensive force, as he takes over first base.
Alonso’s new co-star, Gunnar Henderson, is projected to take an offensive leap in 2026. Henderson dealt with a shoulder injury for all of 2025, which limited his power output to just 17 home runs. The year prior, he amassed 37 homers while posting an OPS just shy of .900.
Fully healthy, Henderson projects to regain a ton of that production with a full Spring Training behind him. He and Alonso have a healthy chance to hit for 30 home runs each. In that case, the Orioles would instantly join the upper-half of MLB offenses.
Additionally, the Orioles added another 30-home run threat in Taylor Ward. Ward smashed a career-best 36 home runs in 2025, although he batted just .228.
Baltimore didn’t just add offensively though. First, the Orioles signed flamethrower Ryan Helsley to become their closer, replacing the injured Felix Bautista. Then, they traded for Shane Baz from the Rays to upgrade their messy rotation situation. Finally, they recently added Chris Bassitt to complete a new-look rotation.
There’s a ton of roster turnover in Baltimore following a disappointing 2025 campaign. Major overhauls of this sort can be the start of a new era, but can also fail to mesh together. So far, all signs indicate that Baltimore’s fresh roster is geared for success in 2025.
Projected Third Place Team: New York Yankees
The Yankees still pose a nightmare for opposing pitchers. Led by arguably the greatest right-handed hitter of all time, New York will remain near the top of the league in runs, OPS, and home runs.
The Yankees’ first six hitters in their lineup have a case to be the league’s best. Here’s each of their wRC+ in 2025:
- Trent Grisham – 129 wRC+
- Aaron Judge – 204 wRC+
- Cody Bellinger – 125 wRC+
- Ben Rice – 133 wRC+
- Giancarlo Stanton – 158 wRC+ (only 77 G)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. – 126 wRC+
In addition to their explosive offense, the Yankees also project to field a strong starting rotation. With the return of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón expected before June, the Yankees will have three legit No. 1 starters. Pair that with promising youngsters Cam Schlittler and Ryan Weathers, and the Yankees appear lethal to the eye.
However, the Yankees have done little to address two glaring issues that have plagued them in recent years. Both their defense and bullpen are still glaring weaknesses that, quite frankly, evaluators cannot overlook.
Both Luke Weaver and Devin Williams departed in free agency for the Mets. The Yankees have done nothing to replace them, except for taking Cade Winquest in the Rule 5 Draft back in December.
The question marks are too big for this team to overcome in the ultra-competitive AL East. While they’ll likely make the playoffs again, it’s tough to project them overcoming the Blue Jays or even the revitalized Orioles.
Projected Fourth Place Team: Boston Red Sox
Boston made the Postseason in 2025, but didn’t make strides where they needed to in the following offseason. The Red Sox added Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray to a packed house of starting pitching. However, they only added Caleb Durbin and Willson Contreras on the offensive side of things.
While Contreras swung the bat hard in 2025, he doesn’t project to improve going forward. They’re relatively young and will remain competitive, but lack the superstar factor. The Red Sox will simply suffer from a small lack of talent compared to their rival New York, and the rising Orioles.
However, Garrett Crochet will be aiming to track down Tarik Skubal for the AL Cy Young award. On the offensive side, the Red Sox will see a full season of Roman Anthony for the first time. By no means will 2026 be disappointing for the Red Sox in terms of pure performance. Their projection as a fourth-place team speaks to the sheer talent of the AL East division.
Projected Fifth Place Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay undoubtedly has brighter days ahead of them, however, 2026 doesn’t figure to be the year it comes together. Lots of excitement should be diverted to the upcoming draft, where the Rays are projected to land elite talent Justin LeBron out of Alabama.
However, all eyes in-season will be on the Rays’ young duo on the left side of the infield. Junior Caminero— who clobbered 45 home runs in 2025— could be shooting for 50 in 2026. Meanwhile, top prospect Carson Williams is expected to compete for the starting shortstop job.
The Tampa Bay Rays are young, and did make some key additions in Steven Matz and Nick Martinez. With Shane McClanahan back healthy after missing two seasons, this roster has promise. They’re still far from a complete team, but they feel like the roster that could go on a random tear in late summer.
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