This marks the beginning of our BSBLR Bets Picks. These will go up 4 to 6 times per week covering a range of bet types, with every unit tracked publicly so you can follow the full record in real time. Our goal is to maintain full transparency with every play posted here being logged and accounted for. To see all picks as they drop and get access to the full card, join us on Dabble using code BSBLR. Read to the end to find out our exact pick for NYY vs SFG.
Logan Webb is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and this number feels like a gift for Opening Day. Webb is over this line in 74% of his starts in 2025, and 74% of his Home starts specifically. More importantly, in March/April from 2022-2025, Webb is over this line in 11/11 Home starts.
The pitch count is not a concern here. Webb got up to 86 pitches in his last Spring Training start against Colorado and got knocked around a bit, but that was in Coors. He should have no problem getting to 90+ pitches in a normal environment tomorrow. He also looked sharp in his WBC starts against Canada and Brazil. The stuff is there. He went 90+ pitches in his first start of both 2023 and 2024, going over this line in each.
Now the biggest point. Tomorrow is a Home night game in San Francisco in late March. Early season night games at Oracle are cold and the air is dense, which means the ball does not carry. That is a massive advantage for a sinker/ground ball pitcher like Webb. Since 2022 in Home games where the temperature sits between 50-60 degrees, Webb has a 2.55 ERA and .268 wOBA. He thrives in exactly these conditions.
Overall seems like a great spot for Webb to eat some innings on Opening Day. Love the Opening Day discount we are getting for a guy who normally sits around 18.5.
The Bet: Logan Webb Over 16.5 Pitching Outs, .5u -101
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