A healthy argument can be made that the Home Run Derby is the prime event of the All-Star break. The annual power showcase from the game’s top sluggers never fails to entertain, as one of the best exhibition events in all of sports.
2026 will not be an off-year, either. The field is loaded with some of the most electric power that baseball has to offer, with plenty of great stories to follow. Here’s the full lineup:
- Junior Caminero, TB
- Jac Caglianone, KC
- Ben Rice, NYY
- Jordan Walker, STL
- Bryce Harper, PHI
- Willson Contreras, BOS
- Kyle Schwarber, PHI
- Munetaka Murakami, CHW
After a runner-up finish to Cal Raleigh in 2025, Junior Caminero returns in 2026 as the favorite. However, young breakout stars Jac Caglianone, Jordan Walker, and Munetaka Murakami each boast compelling cases as well.
Phillies teammates Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are each making their third derby appearances. Their participation carries some history, as Harper topped Schwarber in the final round of the 2018 edition.
Thriving AL East foes Ben Rice and Willson Contreras round out the group. Both sluggers are enjoying career years, leading the way for their respective offenses.
The case for each to win
With the exception of clear wild cards (2025 Jazz Chisholm Jr., for example), rounds are almost always competitive. Odds are always tight, and everyone honestly holds a chance to win.
With that said, there’s a case for all eight of these bats to prevail on Monday. Here’s the key for each player to take home the Derby Champion Chain.
Junior Caminero
Key: Outlast everyone with his league-best bat speed
The electric Rays slugger isn’t just the favorite because of his 2025 performance. The analytics favor Caminero as well, and his bat speed in particular.
Caminero boasts the highest average bat speed in baseball, and the highest Fast Swing rate as well. Simply put, the numbers prove that Caminero swings harder than anyone on the planet— and it isn’t particularly close.
That matters more than ever under the new swing-based format. With just 20 swings in the opening round and 15 in the rounds after, there’s no timer to race anymore. Every hack has to count, and nobody’s average hack produces more distance than Caminero’s.
He’s also been on this stage before. Caminero out-slugged everyone but Cal Raleigh in Atlanta last summer, so the bright lights won’t faze him. If he simply repeats that showing, the chain is his.
Jac Caglianone
Key: Let the raw distance take over the night
Caglianone’s 15 first-half homers are the fewest in the field, but don’t let that fool you. The derby is a batting practice contest, and there might not be a scarier batting practice hitter alive.
The numbers back it up. Among the eight participants, Caglianone owns the highest average exit velocity on home run-candidate fly balls at 107.7 mph. Those candidate flies travel an average of 402 feet, also the longest in the group.
On top of that, the Royals’ youngster is finally putting it together in games, mashing nine home runs in June alone. Give a 6-foot-5 lefty with 80-grade raw power a cage session at Citizens Bank Park, and 20 swings could turn into 15 homers in a hurry.
Ben Rice
Key: Stack up wall-scrapers while everyone else chases moonshots
Rice is the field’s quiet assassin. His 29 home runs rank third in all of baseball, and his .598 SLG tops the derby field. Yet, his average bat speed sits barely above the league average, with just two homers traveling 425-plus feet this season.
Normally, that profile would spell doom in a derby. But in 2026, the format is his best friend. With no timer and no distance bonuses, a 370-foot line drive into the seats counts exactly the same as a 470-foot blast.
Rice’s efficient left-handed stroke is tailor-made for the short right field porch in Philadelphia. If he simply peppers that corner with his 20 swings, he could out-homer sluggers who out-muscle him by 30 feet a swing.
Jordan Walker
Key: Turn his elite bat speed loose with nothing to lose
No player in this field carries a better story than Jordan Walker. After three years of trials in St. Louis, the 24-year-old is finally delivering on the promise, slashing .294/.355/.534 with a career-high 21 homers. His MLB-best 70 RBI made him the first Cardinal to reach 70 before the break since Albert Pujols in 2009.
Under the hood, Walker’s power tools scream derby champion. He pairs a 94.2 mph average exit velocity in the 98th percentile with bat speed that grades out in the 100th percentile of the league.
At 6-foot-6, Walker generates leverage that few humans can match. In a setting with no defense, no breaking balls, and no pressure, that bat speed could produce the most electric round of the night.
Bryce Harper
Key: Feed off the hometown crowd like it’s 2018 again
Harper has done this exact thing before. In 2018, he stormed to a derby crown in front of his home fans in Washington, walking it off against Kyle Schwarber in the final. Eight years later, the stage in South Philly is set for a sequel.
The power is trending in the right direction, too. Harper’s 20 homers through 97 games have him pacing for his highest total since his 2021 MVP campaign, with an .862 OPS to match.
Nobody in baseball embraces a moment quite like Harper. With a sold-out Citizens Bank Park roaring on every swing, betting against the ultimate showman in his own building feels foolish.
Willson Contreras
Key: Ride the best power surge of his career
At 34 years old, Contreras is somehow enjoying his best power season yet. His 20 homers in 87 games already match his entire 2025 total, sitting just four shy of his career high before the break.
The surge is no fluke, either. Contreras’ .513 xSLG ranks in the top 8% of all hitters, while his 114.4 mph max exit velocity lands in the top 6%. The grown-man strength is very real.
Contreras also brings a compact, repeatable right-handed stroke that fits a swing-count format perfectly. While the younger sluggers swing out of their shoes, the veteran could quietly pile up homers with minimal wasted motion.
Kyle Schwarber
Key: Be exactly what he already is— the game’s premier homer machine
There’s a reason Schwarber enters Monday as the betting favorite. He leads the majors with 32 home runs, as the only hitter in baseball to reach 30 before the break for a second straight season.
Historically, no active player homers more efficiently. Among the 300-homer club, only Mark McGwire, Aaron Judge, and Babe Ruth have gone deep more often per plate appearance. Schwarber’s career-high 56.7% pull rate points his damage directly at the Bank’s short right field line.
The one hurdle is health, as Schwarber has managed lower back tightness leading into the break. If the back cooperates, the MLB’s home run king in his home ballpark is the most obvious champion on paper.
Munetaka Murakami
Key: Barrel everything, just like he always has
Murakami’s first MLB season has been equal parts brilliant and cursed. The White Sox rookie blasted 20 homers in his first 57 games before a hamstring strain cost him 35 games. He returned on Friday, and three days later, he’s swinging for a title.
On a per-swing basis, no one in the field does more damage. Murakami’s hard-hit and barrel rates both rank in the 99th percentile, with a 98th percentile average exit velocity. This is the same man who launched 56 homers in Japan at age 22, breaking a record that stood for nearly 60 years.
The layoff is a real question mark. But the swing-based format shrinks the stamina test, and fresh legs might be a blessing in disguise. Consider the wild card officially live.
Predicting Monday night’s champion
The winner: Junior Caminero
Schwarber may be the favorite at the sportsbooks, but this pick comes down to trust in the swing. Caminero’s league-best bat speed travels anywhere, and the new format only amplifies a hitter whose every hack is a max-effort missile.
He came within one round of the chain in 2025, and that experience matters. Derby history loves a returner who finishes the job— just ask Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or Harper himself. This time, there’s no Cal Raleigh standing in the way.
The sleeper: Munetaka Murakami
Every derby needs a chaos agent, and Murakami is this year’s best bet. The 99th percentile barrel rate is real, the legs are fresh, and there’s zero pressure on a rookie who was still on the injured list a week ago.
Twenty homers in 200 at-bats is the densest home run rate in this field. If Murakami finds a rhythm early against his own coach’s throws, the Sox slugger could send Philadelphia home stunned— and put Japan’s greatest power bat on full display.
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