So far on the 2026 season we are right around .500 (20-22, -1.28u). It’s important to remember that it’s a long season and a marathon, not a sprint.
While McClanahan only notched 4 Ks vs Milwaukee in his season debut, I believe we have tons of value here against Chicago. McClanahan pre injury was consistently one of the top lefty K arms in MLB. In 2023 and 2022, Shane had above an 80th percentile Whiff Rate and Chase Rate. 2022 was McClanahan’s best year when he got 194 Ks in 166 IP.
Looking at McClanahan’s splits over his career, he has better K splits both at Home and vs RHH.
Career vs RHH: 28.6% K%, .213 BA, .278 wOBA
Career vs LHH: 25.2% K%, .249 BA, .283 wOBA
Career at Home: 29.9 K%, .221 BA, .278 wOBA
Career on Road: 25.6 K%, .217 BA, .280 wOBA
When Shane is pitching at Home vs RHH, his K% jumps to 31.2%. This will be Shane’s first Home start since July 2023, and the Cubs lineup is expected to start 7 RHH. The two lefties will be PCA and Michael Busch, who both had above a 27 K% vs LHP last year.
On the year Chicago has a 28.8 K% vs LHP. They have faced 3 LHP and all have had 5+ Ks. Messick and Cantillo had 6, while Kikuchi only had 5 but also had 4 BBs.
This is also the first game in the Trop since the hurricane ripped out the roof. I have to believe the crowd will be electric and McClanahan should feed of that.
The Pick: Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 K 1u (+107)
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