With a month of play in the books, there’s already plenty of surprises in the baseball world. The Astros have been a non-factor in the AL West, despite a red-hot start from their superstar Yordan Alvarez. The Mets’ 12-game losing streak took over everyone’s timeline in the middle of April. Just when everyone started to settle in, the Red Sox fired manager Alex Cora among a slew of their coaching staff.
However, the Phillies’ league-worst -43 run differential has somewhat flown under the radar. The team fired manager Rob Thompson on April 28, as Yankee great Don Mattingly took over managerial duties.
The Phillies have made the Postseason in four straight seasons dating back to 2022. That year, they captured the NL Pennant after an electrifying run past the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres. While they’ve been limited in Postseason success as of late, their presence has been a constant.
Philadelphia’s winning pedigree only adds confusion to their ice-cold start in 2026. It’s one thing for an up-and-coming team to blunder high expectations. It’s completely different for a mainstay to simply go missing. Given their home atmosphere and consistently-elite pitching staff, Philly is one of those teams that you just expect to win.
As of Tuesday, May 5, the Phillies sit in fourth place of the NL East with a 15-20 record. Currently 10 games behind the surging Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia’s chances at the division have dipped under 10%, per FanGraphs.
However, the headlines and managerial change don’t quite reflect how this team has been playing. While there’s improvement to be made, the Phillies have actually played well above their 15-20 record. Here are three reasons why they can turn it around
Dominant Pitching, Mediocre Results
The Phillies pitching has looked awful on paper, which comes at a shock to many. A rotation that features Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo, and Aaron Nola sounds formidable. Throw in top prospect Andrew Painter along with their closer Jhoan Duran, and the pitching staff looks like a surefire top-five unit in the sport.
Currently, the unit is technically a bottom-five unit in the sport. As a staff, their 4.61 ERA ranks 26th in all of baseball. Philly also ranks 5th-last in WHIP (1.45), and dead-last in batting average allowed (.277). At at glance, the headline is that the Phillies simply struggle to get outs.
However, that narrative is incredibly far from justified. The Phillies’ team-wide advanced metrics have been nothing short of elite, believe it or not. Take a look at some of the marks they’re putting up:
- 34.9% Hard-Hit Rate (1st in MLB)
- 87.5 MPH Average Exit Velocity (1st in MLB)
- .304 Expected wOBA (2nd in MLB)
Their Expected wOBA (xwOBA), is .32 points less than their actual wOBA, the largest negative gap of any team. So based on exit velocities, launch angles, and launch directions, the Phillies have been the league’s unluckiest team results-wise.
Cristopher Sánchez escapes the jam and is FIRED UP 😤
Seven scoreless IP and counting for the @Phillies ace! pic.twitter.com/Oq6sIIlCMg
— MLB (@MLB) May 6, 2026
The poor reflection of talent in their production is only amplified by their strikeout numbers. Phillies pitching has punched out 330 batter this season, which is tied for the second-most of any team. Their rotation alone ranks 3rd in strikeouts, while their bullpen ranks 10th.
If you quantify all factors, the Phillies should be viewed one of the league’s premier pitching staffs. Instead, Luzardo and Nola are becoming question marks in the eyes of the fans. In turn, their offense is being relied on to an extent that the club hasn’t seen in recent years.
That leads us right into the second our second point.
The offense is misunderstood
The assumed truth about the Phillies suggests that the lineup is aging and fading. Casual fans could subconsciously expect Kyle Schwarber to regress from his career year, and regulars Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Trea Turner to slip down the age curve.
However, the lineup is faring much better than the rankings suggest, similar to the pitching staff. The Phillies rank top-10 in Average Exit Velocity, but have scored the fourth-least runs of any team in baseball. Their .668 OPS ranks 28th, with little justification from their expected numbers.
Using 2025 Average Exit Velocity as a predictor for OPS (0.21 correlation), the Phillies would be predicted to have a .760 OPS, which would currently rank sixth in the MLB.
There’s more pieces to the puzzle, of course. The Phillies have struggled to lift the ball, with their average launch angle floating at 13.4°. Their strikeouts are nearing league average, and they take the fifth-least walks in the MLB.
However, there’s a turning point that lies ahead. The Phillies’ biggest weakness has been left-handed pitching, against which they’re posting a measly .592 OPS. However, their everyday catcher JT Realmuto returned from injury late last week, and figures to augment the offense. Realmuto is historically solid against left-handed pitching, providing a .759 OPS.
As the lineup becomes complete once more, the Phillies should begin to level out against LHP. Beyond that, their offense should slowly rise into plus territory as a whole. The common theme here is that results will begin to emerge for those who deserve them.
For a 15-20 Phillies team, those results are due in a big way.
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