Today we have four picks for the Tuesday slate. To see our full card, sign up on Dabble using code BSBLR and get a free $10. Dabble is the premier Daily Fantasy Sports app for MLB action. Now onto the picks.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 5:40 PM CT
We can only do the same writeup so many times. You know how he is vs RHP at Home (over in 9/12 games this season with 4+ HRR in 7/12 games).
This is more about how Aranda matches up vs Gausman, who has shown weaknesses in his game this year.
Gausman is still elite at walk prevention, but has been giving up hard contact all season. He’s given up 5 home runs this season in 7 starts and has a .439 slugging on the road. He’s also given up 6+ Hits in 3/L4 games and got pulled early in his last start vs the Twins, giving up 4 runs and 2 home runs.
His Split Finger pitch has lost some effectiveness this season, dropping by 7-10% in spin in some starts. The LAST person you want to have an ineffective Split Finger/Forkball pitch against is Aranda. Since 2025, he has a .352 xBA vs those pitches. That’s among the best in baseball.
It also helps that Yandy Diaz is back in the lineup for run scoring.
The Pick: Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 H+R+RBI 1u (+100)
Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals @ 5:45 PM CT
Bradley has been among the biggest surprises in the AL this season, boasting a 2.85 ERA for the Twins. He gets a great matchup vs the Nationals today, whom we targeted all weekend against the Brewers.
Bradley, in 7 starts this season, has thrown 708 pitches. That is the 4th highest in all of baseball, and after today, he will have the most among all qualified pitchers.
The reason for that is that Bradley has the longest leash of any pitcher in the MLB right now. He had 4 ER allowed in 6 innings vs the Rays 2 games ago, and the Twins still sent him out for the 7th.
In his previous start, Bradley gave up an RBI double in the 7th inning to tie the game 2-2. He had 108 pitches at the time, and was still left in to finish the inning.
This is all because new manager Derek Shelton hates having to pull his starters between innings. Since Opening Day, Shelton has pulled a Twins pitcher in the middle of the 6th inning just once all season: by far the lowest in the MLB.
The Nationals have been awful vs RHP. In the last 2 weeks, they rank:
30th in AVG
29th in SLG
30th in wRC+
29th in K%
5 straight righty starters have pitched in the 6th inning vs the Nationals, with 4 of them pitching a full 6 innings.
The Pick: Taj Bradley Over 17.5 Pitching Outs 1u (-136)
Hit Parlays of the Day
Josh Jung is on a 12 game hit streak and has recorded 1+ hit in 18 of his last 20 games. He just faced Elmer Rodriguez-Torres and got a hit, and since 4/29 he is hitting .429 with a .360 xBA vs RHP. He is locked in.
Chase DeLauter might be the hottest hitter in baseball right now. 10 hits in his last 3 games, 17 hits across his last 9, a .667 BA and .432 xBA vs RHP since 4/29. He is just dialed in at the plate. Projected to bat 2nd today with a chance at 5 PAs.
The Pick: Josh Jung + Chase DeLauter 1+ Hit 1u (-110)
Jackson Merrill has 5 hits in his last 3 games and a .362 xBA vs RHP since 4/29. The matchup today is the real story though. Webb is struggling vs LHH this year allowing a .311 BA, and Merrill flat out owns him. He is hitting .667 across 16 career PAs against Webb and has recorded a hit in every single game he has faced him since his MLB debut. He notched an RBI single against Webb earlier this year. This one writes itself.
Elly De La Cruz had a 3 hit game yesterday and is hitting .316 vs RHP over the last week. He also has good numbers against Taillon with a .323 xBA across 15 career PAs and has recorded 1+ hit in 4 of his 5 career games against him. Momentum and matchup both pointing in the right direction today.
The Pick: Jackson Merrill + Elly De La Cruz 1+ Hit 1u (+119)
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