The American League Central sent five teams to the playoffs in the past two seasons.
For the flak that central divisions often get, the AL Central race has been an absolute thrill in recent years. The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians matched up in the Wild Card round in each of the past two years. In 2024, the Kansas City Royals upset the 91-win Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card round.
The Tigers boast the back-to-back AL Cy Young award winner. Meanwhile, the Royals’ shortstop nearly beat out Aaron Judge for the AL MVP award in 2024. This division isn’t lacking talent whatsoever. Depth? Maybe a little bit. Regardless, the single-superstar precedent established in this division is a fun element that feels a little retro.
The absence of an overwhelmingly expensive roster tends to drive gritty competition in this division. Managers Will Venable, Stephen Vogt, A.J. Hinch, and Matt Quatraro certainly embody that nature. Even the fun descriptions thrown around on social media— such as “Gritty Tigs” and “GuardsBall” back up that statement.
While it projects to be tight, here’s how this division could shake out in 2026.
Projected Division Champion: Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers surrendered a 15.5-game division lead in 2025, losing the division title to the Guardians. However, Cleveland ended up giving the momentum right back. The Tigers topped the Guardians in the Wild Card series on the road, advancing to compete with the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS.
Detroit took the Mariners to five games— and a 15-inning standstill in Game 5— but ultimately lost on a Jorge Polanco walk-off single. In the offseason, the Tigers dealt a good bit of their money to their starting pitching, both by choice (Signing free agents Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander), and by force (losing a record-setting arbitration case to Tarik Skubal).
With the new combination of Skubal and Valdez up front, the Tigers instantly become the best rotation in the division. With respect due to Kansas City’s Cole Ragans, the Tigers boast two of the best three left-handed pitchers in the division.
Skubal is coming off of a monster 2025, where he improved in essentially every stat from his Cy Young-winning 2024 campaign. Take a look at the improvements he made:
- 31.9% » 32.5% Whiff Rate
- 30.3% » 32.2% Strikeout Rate
- 4.6% » 4.4% Walk Rate
- 87.5 MPH » 86.1 MPH Average Exit Velocity
Due to elite results and advanced data, Skubal is the favorite to win the 2026 Cy Young. Meanwhile, Framber Valdez’s elite ground ball ability should lock him in as one of the best No. 2 pitchers in the MLB.
As for the offense, Riley Greene figures to lead the way once more in 2026. The previous year, Greene hit .258 with 36 home runs which led all Tigers.
In addition to Greene, the roster has two “lightning in a bottle” sort of players. Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson combined to hit 57 home runs in 2025, and could each go for 30 in 2026. The remainder of their offense is OBP-centered, with players like Gleyber Torres and Colt Keith setting the table.
The consensus No. 2 prospect in the MLB, Kevin McGonigle, should also debut at some point in 2026. There’s too much momentum with this group to predict the division to slip out of their hands again.
Projected Second Place Team: Kansas City Royals
The Royals’ trump card is their superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., the division’s best position player. FanGraphs projects 6.7 WAR and a 131 wRC+ for the soon to be 26-year-old.
Witt Jr. isn’t the only thing Kansas City has going for them, though. The Royals will be getting the first full season of both Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone in 2026. The two young power-hitting lefties should give the Royals exactly what they lacked in 2025: home runs.
In 2025, the Royals ranked 26th in home runs, although they actually placed 17th in slugging percentage. The disparity shows that they’re not lacking in offensive talent, but rather in pure power. Both Jensen and Caglianone, at full health, will change that instantly. Here’s some of their most impressive power data:
- Jac Caglianone: 77.4 MPH swing speed, 12% Barrel Rate, 514-foot home run in college
- Carter Jensen: 17.4% K-Rate, 633 xSLG, 95.4 MPH Avg. EV, 20.8% Barrel Rate (in 69 PA)
Caglianone boasts incredible physical strength, and Jensen barrelled up baseballs more often than he struck out in a small sample size.
The Royals are also moving their fences in, as well as lowering them to 8.5 feet in 2026. The Royals should quickly shoot up the rankings in terms of home runs, slugging, and of course, total runs scored.
Their pitching staff should also get a much better year out of their ace Cole Ragans. Ragans posted an unbelievable 2.67 Expected ERA in 2025, but was extremely unlucky. He finished with a 4.67 ERA in reality, which simply didn’t represent how talented he is.
Ragans struck out 38.1% of hitters he faced, which trailed just Mason Miller of the San Diego Padres. The common theme with this roster is that there’s a ton of change expected to come. Fortunately for Kansas City, the bulk of the change figures to be positive, and they’re likely to make a run at the playoffs in 2026.
Projected Third Place Team: Cleveland Guardians
Summed up, the Cleveland Guardians’ offseason was extremely underwhelming in terms of immediate additions. They added three bullpen arms, two free agents and one Rule 5 Draft addition. Right-hander Shawn Armstrong is the only notable arm of the bunch.
The headliner move of Cleveland’s offseason was extending the contract of their hometown hero José Ramírez. The third baseman will remain under team control through the 2032 season, in which Ramírez will be turning 40.
For a squad that made a huge late push to win the division in 2025, the lack of moves up front was disappointing. Because of this, their current roster will be counting on too much internal improvement. While all have a chance, it’s unlikely that Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo, Gabriel Arias, and Brayan Rocchio all take a big step forward in 2026.
On paper, this team looks like the same squad that won the division in 2025. However, this core seems like it’s simply slowing down, if not already lagging behind the projected improvement of their rivals in Detroit and Kansas City.
Projected Fourth Place Team: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox aren’t expected to compete once again in 2026, but it’s a very new feel in the Southside. After their statement pickup of Munetaka Murakami, the White Sox made sneaky moves to get Luisangel Acuña and Erick Fedde, as well as Austin Hays late in the offseason.
Chicago also holds two promising left-handed pitching prospects, Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith, just on the cusp of the majors. In addition to their minor-league prospects, the White Sox also rolled out three promising rookies in 2025.
Shortstop Colson Montgomery packs some serious pop from the left side, hitting 21 HR in 71 MLB games. Catchers Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero feature similar offensive skillsets, and should both also take a step forward.
Without Luis Robert, the White Sox seem like a team that is taking on a new identity. Considering their offseason was more active than the Guardians or Royals, there’s a possibility for them to overtake one of, or even both teams. This squad has a floor of “fun,” with a ceiling of “shocking.”
Projected Fifth Place Team: Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins didn’t even have an awful offseason. They brought in Anthony Banda from the reigning MLB champions, and inked Josh Bell to a one-year deal. The Opening Day roster will undoubtedly look better than it did to close 2025.
However, the damage done to the Twins at the trade deadline in 2025 is simply too much to overcome. They let go of their biggest strength by trading Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, leaving their bullpen exposed. Then, they dealt their star shortstop in Carlos Correa to his old team.
Sure, the prospect overhaul could prove beneficial in the coming years. However, this roster is far from the version that won the division in 2023.
All-Star centerfielder Byron Buxton figures to keep up his recent resurgence, and will likely lead the team in all counting stats. Meanwhile, Joe Ryan will hold the ace role as Pablo Lopez misses the entire season with Tommy John surgery.
This franchise’s stock took a major hit recently when Derek Falvey stepped down from his role as President of Baseball Operations. If you remember the yard sale at the trade deadline, his departure is extremely concerning. As of now, the Twins don’t have a clear direction going forward.
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