Major League Baseball has its fair share of budding star hitters, from rookie sensations Sal Stewart and Kevin McGonigle to surfacing youngsters James Wood and Junior Caminero.
However, there are far fewer established superstars than up-and-comers. These are the guys “you can’t let beat you” because they have a steady track record of coming up with a big extra-base knock.
Players like Yordan Alvarez, Jose Ramirez, and, of course, the MVPs, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, come to mind. These are the players who take over a series—the “independent variables,” if you will. In other words, their team goes as they go.
One name out of Minnesota is making a case to join that exclusive club. Byron Buxton is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, but after his 2025 campaign, this isn’t anything new. Buxton’s reputation as a streaky star is beginning to evolve.
Lighting it up at the plate
Since Saturday, April 25, Buxton has been slugging a scorching .821 with six home runs. His six blasts are tied for the most in baseball over that span. He’s posted a 0.9 fWAR across the week and a half.
Buxton’s approach has been simple: lift the ball in the air and let his raw strength take over. According to early bat tracking data, his stance is wider, and his swing is actually a tick slower. However, he’s posting his best strikeout rate since 2021, as well as improving his Pull-Air rate from 26.0% to 31.1%.
Thanks to these small adjustments, Buxton has 20 barrels on the season, which ranks sixth in all of baseball. He connected on nine barrels in as many games heading into Wednesday.
Over those nine contests, Buxton’s average launch angle sat at an absurd 24.4°. The craziest stat might be this: in those games, 60% of his batted balls were fly balls, and 30% of those fly balls resulted in home runs.
If you do the math, that’s an 18% chance of a home run in every plate appearance. If you’re Twins manager Derek Shelton, you absolutely love those odds.
Evolving into a full-time superstar
At age 32, with his injury history, it’s easy to be concerned about Buxton’s longevity at this stage of his career. However, the advanced numbers are having none of that.
Buxton’s sprint speed still lands in the top 3% of all MLB players. He’s continuing to provide elite centerfield defense, sitting in the 92nd percentile for Outs Above Average. Even with his dip in bat speed, Buxton is still comfortably swinging harder than the average player.
Looking at multi-year production, Buxton is starting to climb into premier territory. Since 2024, Buxton ranks:
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5th in SLG
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5th in ISO
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11th in wRC+
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17th in Home Runs (despite playing in just 261 of 360 games)
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7th in Barrel%
This multi-year window is what validates hot streaks like Buxton’s current tear. He’s no longer a hot-and-cold power bat that can be either an advantage or a disadvantage. Buxton’s presence in the lineup is purely positive at this point.
Full-season pace
While it’s unrealistic for even the most predictable hitters, why not take a look at the full season we could get out of Byron Buxton?
Prior to Wednesday’s action, here is what Buxton is on pace for over a full season, factoring in his playing time:
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148 G
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.250 AVG
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48 HR
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8 SB
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76 XBH
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.843 OPS
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13 Outs Above Average
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8 Defensive Runs Saved
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5.4 fWAR
Buxton is on pace for 89 barrels as well as 206 hard-hit balls. Hypothetically, that is simply a monster season.
The exciting part is that Buxton’s track record suggests he is much more likely to actually put together this kind of season compared to other early thrivers. Nothing is assured, but with health on his side, Buxton could record his first career 40-homer campaign.
Not to mention that 5.4 fWAR would eclipse his total of 5.0 in 2025. We’re only a month in, but the Buck Truck looks better than ever. Over the next few months, we’ll follow Buxton closely to see if he takes the next step toward superstardom.
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