Today we got four ELITE hitter picks, including two different Hit Parlays. Unfortunately yesterday we went 1-2, however I think the reads were good. Martinez lost the hit parlay but he put some good swings on the ball. Guerrero didn’t perform well but that was because Ranger had the best game of his career. Those should even out as the season goes on. We are still however on a 6-2 run over the last 3 days!
Before we get into today’s picks, make sure to sign up on Dabble using code BSBLR and get a free $10. Dabble is the premier Daily Fantasy App for MLB, NBA, NFL, and many other sports. Now onto the picks.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates @5:40 PM CT
Leahy has a .294 xBA while giving up an INSANE .373 BAA to left-handed hitters. The top of this Pirates lineup is going to eat him alive.
Assuming Oneil Cruz returns to the lineup today, O’Hearn will be surrounded by Cruz, Reynolds, Lowe, and Ozuna in the lineup. Good spot to be.
O’Hearn is quietly having a very solid season. A 90th percentile xwOBA, a 95th percentile xBA, and a .937 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2026. Tonight is also a night game where he is slashing .333/.444/.467. Both of his best splits are active here.
With a runner on first, O’Hearn turns into a completely different hitter, a 1.215 OPS and two home runs in that situation this year. The RBI component of this prop is not a concern when the lineup around him is putting runners on base.
The Pick: Ryan O’Hearn Over 1.5 H+R+RBI 1u (-125)
Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves @6:15 PM CT
Kevin is good. Like really good.
This year he has 2+ HRR in 19/27 games (70%). In his last 8 games he has 25 HRR (3.1 HRR/G). His xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG all rank in the 95th percentile. The #2 prospect in baseball looks like a future superstar.
He gets a favorable matchup today in southpaw Martin Perez. Perez has had a good start on paper but the metrics show he is due for regression.
Perez will primarily throw Sinkers to LHH (60% usage). His average velocity on the Sinker is 90.6 MPH. When Kevin gets a fastball under 92 MPH his xBA is .471, and his xSLG is .769. He LOVES to hit low velocity fastballs.
DET as a team has the 7th highest wRC+ vs LHP in the L30 days. Kevin himself has a .300 xBA vs LHP since 4/5. Him and the Tigers should be able to put up some runs vs Perez.
The Pick: Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 H+R+RBI 1u (-124)
Hit Parlay(s) of the Day
Sal Stewart + Mike Trout 1+ Hit 1u (+110)
Junior Caminero + Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Hit 1u (+123)
Sal Stewart gets Kyle Freeland today, who has not been good this year. He carries a .376 xBA vs LHP since 4/5 and the books already have him at a 2.5 HRR line, meaning they are expecting him to mash. Hitting conditions at Great American Ballpark today are ideal.
Mike Trout is heating up. Since 4/18 he has a .363 xBA vs RHP, and over his last two games he has a .448 xBA, 1.247 xSLG, and is averaging 101 MPH exit velocity. When Trout is making contact like that it is a problem for every pitcher in baseball. The pitch mix sets up nicely today as well.
Junior Caminero has a .358 xBA vs RHP since 4/18 and has recorded 1+ hit in 79% of his games this year. He is hitting .333 across 9 career PAs vs Bibee, who struggles against RHH on the year allowing a .316 BA. The matchup checks every box.
Ildemaro Vargas has recorded 1+ hit in all 18 games he has played this year. 18 for 18. He is hitting .340 vs RHP this year and gets Patrick today, who is allowing a .318 BA to LHH. Projected to bat 5th on the road with a chance at 5 PAs, and the pitch mix is a great match for his profile.
