Today we have two picks for the Friday slate. To see our full card, sign up on Dabble using code BSBLR and get a free $10. We really love the Feed/Discover page where we can use it to tail other users bets. Very unique, check it out!
Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 6:10 PM CT
Aranda is just simply a monster. Over in 14/L20 games vs RHP. Over in 77% of Home games vs RHP. This just feels right.
He doesn’t just hit this line at Home. He blows right through it and gets extra for fun. Vs RHP at Home he is averaging 3.23 HRR/Game.
Since 5/7 Aranda has a .400 BA and .700 SLG vs RHP. Tampa has a 115 wRC+ vs RHP in the Last 14 days, 5th highest in MLB.
Junk for Miami is allowing a .287 BA and .465 SLG vs LHH. This is a slam dunk for Aranda.
The Pick: Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 H+R+RBI 1u (-120)
San Francisco Giants vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:40 PM CT
It feels like I can’t get a good read on what Tyler Mahle is. One day he goes out there and lays a dud, but then the next outing he looks like an all-star.
After doing some digging in the numbers, thats Tyler Mahle. He bounces back after tough games.
Mahle after games allowing less than 2 ER has a 5.99 ERA across his career. In games following a poor outing (allowing 2 or more ER) his ERA drops to 4.48.
When Mahle has a shutout, the next game he allows on average 2.94 ER. When he allows 3-4 ER, the next game his average ER is 2.14.
When he allows 6 or more HA the previous start, in the next one he’s allowing only 4 on average. The dude bounces back.
5.5 feels high here. Last year he finished under in 88% of games, this year in 63%. He is coming off a game where he allowed 4 ER and 5 HA against PIT. This year following games allowing 3+ ER he has thrown a shutout each time.
While the Athletics can be a tough matchup, only 4/12 RHP starters have allowed 6+ HA in Sacramento.
The Pick: Tyler Mahle Under 5.5 Hits Allowed 1u (-111)
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