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Cincinatti Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates @5:45 PM CT
Lot’s of reasons to like Mr. O’Hearn today. To start, he is over in 14/24 games vs RHP (58%). Since 4/22 he has a .293 xBA, .462 xSLG, and .394 xwOBA. All very decent.
O’Hearn and the Pirates get Brady Singer today, who has struggled vs LHH. On the year he has a .366 BA and .493 SLG vs LHH. The top 4 batters in the PIT lineup are expected to be LHH.
Singer primarily throws Sinker/Slider/Cutter to LHH. Hitting against that pitch mix, O’Hearn is hitting .370 and slugging over .650. Just an incredible pitch mix match.
O’Hearn also LOVES hitting in the cold. When temperatures are between 40-50 since his debut, O’Hearn has a wRC+ of 139. When the temperature is over 50, his wRC+ falls down to 103. Temperatures are expected to be around low 40s today.
The Pick: Ryan O’Hearn Over 1.5 H+R+RBI 1u (-105)
Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners @8:45 PM CT
Buy low spot here on Woo.
Last year he had 6+ Ks in 86% of Home games (12/14). This year he is over in 2/2.
Woo was extremely consistent last year, and I believe the few rough games he’s had are no reason to worry too much.
He gets a Royals team that is slightly better than average in K% vs RHP, however when they have faced decent K arms they have run into trouble.
Will Warren – 11
Gavin Williams – 8
Jack Flaherty – 7
Cam Schlittler – 6
The only two names I would include that didn’t get 6+ ks as “good K arms” would be Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley. Both were extremely early in the season and Ryan always struggles vs Kansas City.
The Pick: Bryan Woo Over 5.5 K 1u (-108)
Hit Parlay of the Day: Ryan Jeffers + Juan Soto 1+ Hit 1u (+120)
Ryan Jeffers gets to face Patrick Corbin today. He already faced him once this year and went 3/3 with a home run. Jeffers has 5 hits across his last 3 games. This should be free.
Soto had a monster game yesterday going 2/3 with a walk. He would have gone 3/4 with a HR had James Wood not robbed him at the wall. He is making very hard contact at the moment and I expect that to continue tonight.
Join Dabble using code BSBLR! Lets have a great Friday!
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